Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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609 FXUS65 KPUB 261751 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1151 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler with an uptick in thunderstorms today, with a few severe storms possible across the southeast plains this afternoon and evening. - Rain showers and thunderstorms expected each day Thursday through Tuesday. - Some days may have strong to severe storms during the long term period, with Thursday and Sunday of biggest concern at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Increased PoPs over the southeastern plains due to early convective initiation. -Stewey && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 353 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A shortwave across the Great Basin will be cutting down the upper ridge across CO today bringing an uptick in thunderstorms as forcing moves across during the late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile a cool front/outflow boundary will backdoor into the southeast plains, bringing an increase in surface dew points through the day. By 21z, consensus is dew points will increase into the upper 40s to around 50 along the I-25 corridor to around 60 for the far eastern plains. Precipitable waters increase even across the mountains today as the southerly tap of subtropical moisture shifts westward with the incoming shortwave. Values will range from 0.75 across the mountains to 1.5 across the plains. This will be approaching 150+% of normal based on extrapolation of blended TWP satellite products. So thunderstorms will have greater coverage and precipitation efficiencies over the mountains today. And, as storms develop/push eastward into the southeast plains, they will encounter HREF mean CAPE values of up to 1250 J/kg of CAPE and deep layer shears of 40 kts which will be sufficient for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Soundings still show inverted V structure, especially closer to the mountains and across the Raton Mesa region/southern plains so gusty outflow winds over 60 mph looks like the main risk. CAPE and shear appear better north of highway where a combined hail risk will be included. Timing of thunderstorms differ across the plains between the CAMS models with some showing storm initiation as early as 1 PM along the Palmer and Raton ridges as convective temperatures are reached. Another round spreads off the mountains late this afternoon and evening as forcing from the shortwave gets closer. A low level jet this evening allows for a thunderstorm cluster to get organized across our far eastern counties which could keep convection going until 1 AM near the eastern border. Will keep thunderstorms in the forecast well into the overnight hours out east, though think main severe risk will diminish after 9-10 PM as focus shifts eastward. Meanwhile, the moisture plume over the mountains may keep showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms going into the overnight hours along the Continental Divide a well. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday but still could hit 100 degrees across portions of the southeast plains before thunderstorm outflows cool things off in the evening. With residual cloud cover tonight, overnight lows will stay on the warm side for all areas. -KT && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 353 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thursday - Tuesday: Active weather is expected throughout much of the long term period for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will mostly fluctuate between southwesterly to westerly with embedded shortwaves pushing over the area, bringing periods of enhanced forcing. Along with that, moisture will remain in place through much of this timeframe. With the heightened periods of forcing and the abundant moisture in place, rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each afternoon across the area, initially along the mountains during the early afternoon hours and expanding across the valleys and plains through mid to late afternoon hours. Along with that, some days may bring strong to severe storms, with Thursday and Sunday of particular concern at this moment, with both days having a better combination of shear, moisture, and instability. Thursday is a rather unique day though, as rich moisture and modest shear will overspread most of the area, which will open the possibility of strong to severe storms for the entirety of south central and southeastern Colorado, though weaker shear is anticipated to keep the severe risk lower. The most likely hazards at this time with any strong to severe storms is expected to be strong to severe wind gusts and large hail. In addition, flooding could become a concern with any slower moving thunderstorms any of these days, given the moisture content in place. With all of that said, showers and storms in place any of these days is expected to decrease in coverage and intensity throughout the mid to late evening hours as instability starts to lessen. Looking at temperatures, the stretch of hot days continue. Much of the region will remain near to slightly above seasonal values for late June to early July. With that said though, a cold front will push southward over the area late Friday into early Saturday, helping to bring at least one day of minor relief from the heat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be increasing and becoming more synoptically influenced throughout the day, but become more diurnally influenced by later in the forecast period as they decouple and weaken. Winds are expected to be gusty at times out of the ESE-SSE at both KCOS and KPUB during the afternoon. SHRA and TSRA are expected to be in and around the vicinity of all stations later in the afternoon and though the evening today, mainly after 22Z at KALS and 00Z at KCOS and KPUB. If SHRA/TSRA does develop, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds for all terminals. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...STEWARD