004
FXUS65 KPUB 020950
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of strong to severe thunderstorms increase this
  afternoon across the eastern plains, mainly along and east of
  a line from Crowley County to Las Animas County.

- Scattered thunderstorm activity continues on Wednesday, with some
strong to severe potential over the eastern plains.

- Drier conditions return Thursday with increasing fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Currently...An upper shortwave was crossing western MT and WY early
this morning, producing broad west to southwest flow across CO and
helping to keep some shower activity going along the Continental
Divide. Temps as of 3 AM had cooled into the 50s for the high
valleys, and mid to upper 60s for the plains.

Today and Tonight...The upper trough axis is forecast to quickly
sweep across MT and WY today, reaching the eastern borders by around
9 AM. This will keep isolated showers lingering across the higher
terrain, and especially the central mts and Pikes Peak region,
through the morning. A cold front is expected to drop south across
the Palmer Divide right around midday, ushering in a northerly sfc
wind shift that will then quickly swing around to a more easterly
direction through the afternoon. Upper dynamics provided by the
passing trough to the north, coupled with increasing 0-6 km bulk
shear due to the sfc frontal passage, will then tap into the llvl
moisture pool as evident by dewpoints in the mid 50s across the far
eastern plains. Dewpoints are actually forecast to jump up into the
lower 60s by early evening, hence the even greater threat for severe
weather over Baca and Prowers counties. Given the ingredients, SPC
has included all of the eastern plains up to the eastern mts in a
Marginal threat for severe storms, and the far southeast corner in a
Slight risk area. In addition, WPC has painted a swath of Marginal
risk for excessive rainfall over the southeast corner of the state
today, recognizing the potential for bouts of heavy rainfall.

Convection should start percolating along the eastern mts by around
2 PM, affect the I-25 Corridor by 4 PM, then continue east across
the plains through the evening. Meanwhile activity over the
Continental Divide and high valleys will likely diminish by 6 PM.
There is a chance that convection will migrate back west along the
southern border through the evening and linger in the vicinity of
Trinidad and Walsenburg late tonight.

Look for high temps today in the 70s to lower 80s for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Overnight low
temps tonight are anticipated to cool into the 40s to around 50F for
the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Wednesday...

Slightly cooler on Wednesday, with an uptick in precipitation from
moist post-frontal air as a mid-level disturbance passes through the
flow aloft. Storms will fire during the afternoon hours over and
near our eastern mountains before pushing east. A tightening
pressure gradient over the far eastern plains, coupled with
southeasterly surface winds advecting in good moisture, should give
us plenty of instability and directional shear for some strong to
severe storms. As of now, SPC has most of the plains outlooked for a
marginal severe risk, while our northeastern plains counties have a
slight risk where the lift from the passing shortwave will be
stronger. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than
Tuesday, with 80s-90s across most of our area.


Thursday (Independence Day)...

The broad upper-level trough will begin to move out of our area on
Thursday, ushering in drier northwest flow aloft. At the mid to low
levels, westerly winds will set in over the higher terrain, leading
to dry downsloping in many adjacent areas and lowering humidity
values further. On one hand, this means that little to no
precipitation is expected in our CWA, a boon for holiday
festivities. However, fire danger will increase across our area due
to low RH values and gusty surface winds. Current data shows the
highest chances for critical fire weather conditions over and near
the higher terrain. The eastern plains will be dry, but winds should
be slightly weaker. Either way, activities involving sparks or fire
should be handled with great care.


Friday Onwards...

Models bring a cold front south across the plains later Thursday
into Friday. High temperatures will decrease a few degrees, with
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. In
general, models show decreasing storm activity as we move into the
weekend as a broad area of high pressure builds off of the west
coast. Northwest flow will remain in place aloft, even as a
shortwave trough passes to our north on Sunday. Temperatures will
remain mostly steady until early next week before slowly but
steadily warming.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated across much of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. A cold front pushing south across the Palmer Divide today
by midday will swing sfc winds around across the plains to a more E-
SE direction this afternoon. Widespread convection is expected to
affect all TAF sites today, with the potential of gusty and erratic
outflow winds from thunderstorm developing this afternoon, mainly
affecting KCOS and KPUB.

KALS: VCSH this morning through 15z otherwise increasing W-SW winds
with gusts to 25 kts between 17z and 02z.

KCOS: Increasing E-SE winds with gusts to 25 kts after 17z with VCTS
developing after 18z and lasting to around 02z.

KPUB: Increasing E-SE winds with gusts to 25 kts after 17z with VCTS
developing after 20z and lasting to around 03z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOORE