Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
029 FXUS65 KPUB 280958 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 358 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer with less storm coverage today, but still a chance for one or two severe storms far eastern plains late this afternoon and evening. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Saturday through Wednesday. - Strong to severe storms will be possible both Saturday and Sunday afternoon, though mostly across the plains. - Quieter weather returns near the end of the long term period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 354 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Next wave is already evident in satellite/radar loops entering northwest CO in westerly flow aloft. This will provide the forcing for another round of thunderstorms today, though models agree that coverage should be less than the past few days as some drying works in around the northern side of the upper high which has been suppressed to the south. PWATs continue to drop from around 0.75 to 1.50 early this morning to 0.5 to 1.00 by this afternoon. However more sun today should yield better heating and destabilization to act on residual moisture and trigger another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms with greatest coverage across northern areas. Lee troughing will keep enhanced westerly flow in and near the mountains (especially lower eastern slopes) which will drive the dew points down into the 30s to lower 40s. Inverted V soundings suggest gusty winds and lightning will be the primary storm risk with storms over the mountains and most of the plains today, though there will be sufficient moisture and elevated CAPE for some locally heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. Storm motions from the west around 20-25 mph should keep storms moving sufficiently to reduce any localized flash flood risk. Far eastern plains could see a better risk for a strong to severe storm or two, especially across Kiowa and Prowers counties, and perhaps into the overnight hours a couple or so farther west depending on moisture return/lift behind the cold front. Main period to watch will be the early evening where HREF indicates CAPE up to 1000 J/kg and deep layer shears up to 40 kts. Some CAMS are suggesting a helicity swath with storms over Kiowa county during the evening, though parameters do look better farther north. The cold front will push southward through the plains late tonight into Saturday morning and could keep some showers and thunderstorms going past midnight for the eastern counties. Otherwise expect continued hot temperatures over the region, especially the southeast plains with warm overnight lows given the clouds and mixing behind the front. Didn`t stray far from national model blends. -KT && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 354 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Saturday - Wednesday: An active pattern is expected to remain in place for much of the long term period. Messy westerly to southwesterly flow is still anticipated to prevail through Wednesday, with shortwaves embedded within the flow passing over the region. Along with that, richer moisture will remain in place, especially Saturday and Sunday behind FROPA from late Friday evening. With the periods of heightened forcing from the waves, and the moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each day, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours. Showers and storms will initially blossom along the mountains during the early afternoon hours, and expand across the valleys and plains during the mid to late afternoon hours. For Saturday and Sunday, strong to severe storms will be possible given the abundant moisture, instability, and modest shear in place, with expected hazards from severe storms being severe wind gusts and large hail. In addition, flash flooding will remain a concern, particularly Saturday and Sunday, with any slower moving storms given the moisture over the area. With all of that said, any precipitation present each day will decrease in coverage and intensity during the mid to late evening hours as instability wanes. Looking at temperatures, a stretch of near to slightly above seasonal values is anticipated. Saturday will be the coolest day behind the aforementioned cold front from Friday evening, with slightly below seasonal values across the plains. Thursday: For the end of the long term period, there are signals of some quieter weather returning. Flow will start to take on a more northwesterly component, which ensemble model guidance are in good agreement on. While forcing may still be present from any shortwaves within the flow and orographics over the terrain, this flow pattern would be expected to start to scour out some of the moisture that has been in place. So with all of that said, showers and thunderstorm chances and coverage are anticipated to lessen Thursday, though isolated showers along the mountains will be possible during the afternoon given diurnal instability and ongoing orographics. As for temperatures, values will hover around seasonal values for early July. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 354 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today with isolated high based thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening. These will be more localized and less likely to impact the TAF sites today though winds late this afternoon and evening will become gusty and dominated by thunderstorm outflows. A cold front will bring a stronger northerly wind shift into both KCOS and KPUB after 06z Sat. KALS will see winds become light and variable by late evening and remain so through the end of the TAF period. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...KT