Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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161 FXUS65 KPUB 290541 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1141 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening, with a low chance, 20 to 30 percent, for a severe storm or two across the far eastern plains. - Thunderstorm chances increase on Saturday and Sunday, along with the risk for severe storms and flash flooding. - Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Monday through Wednesday, though coverage and intensity look to decrease throughout the week. - Dry conditions return for Fourth of July, which will mean less thunderstorm coverage for many, but marginal fire danger for some. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 236 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across southern Colorado this afternoon as westerly flow aloft has ushered additional shortwave energy. Some lee troughing has occurred, however, given lacking focus and deep westerly flow, overall coverage has remained limited. For the remainder of the afternoon, think this setup will continue and support this more isolated to widely scattered development. Additionally, the westerlies have supported drying once again today, with the main instability axis shifting to the east out of the area. With this drier air and lowering instability, think the risk of severe weather will be low this afternoon. Slightly higher instability along and west of the Continental Divide could support an isolated stronger storm capable of producing brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Elsewhere, gusty winds will likely accompany any storm or shower given the dry air in the lower levels, and with a fair amount of DCAPE in place across southern Colorado. Think there is still a low chance, 20 to 30 percent, for a severe storm or two across the far eastern plains. This potential looks to be primarily over Kiowa county, along a southward moving boundary. Guidance varies on this potential given the placement of the boundary along with the potential instability. While some CAMs are showing development in this area through around 7-8 pm, still think the risk of severe storms will be on the lower side given the likelihood the main instability axis will be to the east in Kansas. At this time, a more likely scenario is for the continued risk of stronger storms. Slightly higher moisture and instability along with even 700mb flow focused right in this area could support the risk of small hail and strong gusty winds. Will continue to keep an eye on trends with how the instability evolves later this evening as some guidance is showing a trend back west. If that were to occur, could see the risk of severe storms increase, still mainly over Kiowa county. Will see cooler temps return to the area on Saturday with the arrival of the post frontal air. Relatively quiet early on, but will see thunderstorm activity increase during the afternoon hours as moisture and instability return back to southern Colorado. Will need to monitor the potential for both strong to severe weather along with the potential for heavy rains and possible flash flooding. While these are concerns, there is some uncertainty with regard to the extent, placement, and even timing of the instability on Saturday. Additionally, strong capping in place throws some additional uncertainty as to the extent of the thunderstorm development. It could be that convection delays for most of the day, until moisture/instability pushes up against the southeast mountains via deep and persistent south/southeast flow, and then storm development occurs. If so, would see storms then push away from the higher terrain. Once again, the extent of the instability will factor into how intense storms get. Will continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe development, along with the risk of heavy rains and flash flooding. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 236 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Sunday.. Though we remain cooler for Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s on the plains, chances for severe thunderstorms look to remain in our forecast as abundant moisture lingers over the forecast area. EPS and GEFS ensemble members keep PWAT anomalies around 180% to 220% of normal over our plains for Sunday, which will lead to heightened chances for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances in general. Models are not in great agreement about the exact amount of shear or instability that we should realize on Sunday quite yet, but the overall idea seems to be that we could see anywhere from 1200-2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE along the I-25 corridor and eastwards onto our plains. Most models are showing pretty lackluster shear of 20kts or less, which could ultimately be a limiting a factor for severe thunderstorm development, but the FV3, one of the few CAMs that goes out into Sunday at this early stage, is showing closer to 35kts over the Pikes Peak region, along with 45kts over our eastern plains. If higher shear is realized, our severe potential will of course increase for Sunday, with all modes of severe possible including a risk for isolated tornados. Monday Through Wednesday A slow warming a drying trend begins on Monday and persists through the middle of the work week. This will keep our temperatures just a few degrees above normal for most locations during this timeframe. The decreased moisture will also limit our our risk for severe thunderstorm development, however, we will see daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially over the high country. At this time, critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the first half of next week, with relative humidity values looking to stay around the 19-24% range at least every afternoon, and winds remaining fairly weak (outside of thunderstorm activity.) Fourth of July and Onwards.. Ensembles bring quieter and more northwesterly flow aloft towards our region by Thursday, which should lead to at least a day or two of very sparse thunderstorm chances, and warmer temperatures for Thursday and Friday. One concern with our Fourth of July forecast is that our relative humidity values look to fall down into the mid to upper teens in a few places, including the upper and middle Arkansas River Valley to include the Pueblo area, which could lead to dangerously dry conditions for Holiday activities. For most areas, winds look to remain below critical fire weather thresholds, but the overall dryness could end up being something that needs to be monitored as we head into the second half of this week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Weather is expected to be rather active during this forecast period, especially for KCOS and KPUB. First, a rather strong cold front is going to come down the eastern plains tonight, crossing KCOS around 09 UTC and KPUB at 10 UTC. Wind could gusts to 35 to 40 knots (or briefly higher), with the winds only slowly decreasing and gradually veering to easterly then southeasterly by late morning. Second, a strong band of showers and thunderstorms are expected to cross over the KPUB and KCOS taf sites around 00 UTC late tomorrow afternoon, with locally heavy rain and possibly some hail. Strong gusty winds from the northwest are likely with the storms. AT KALS, VFR is likely through nearly all of the fcst period, with some TSRA being possible during tomorrow afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...HODANISH/KT