101
FXUS65 KPUB 022047
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and
  tomorrow afternoon over the plains, with scattered late night
  storms over the plains (Better chance of svr wx tomorrow).

- Drier air has moved into the interior mountains.

- A fairly active west to northwest flow pattern keeping chances of
  showers and storms across Eastern Colorado through the Holiday
  Weekend.

- Drier conditions across south central Colorado with increasing
  fire danger and pockets of near critical fire weather
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Currently...

Looking at water vapor, drier air has moved into most of Colorado at
mid and high levels. Time lapse of sfc dwpt charts show dramatic
drying conditions across Utah and NW Colorado. However, lower levels
over the remainder of the state show dewpts still holding into the
40s and 50s, with 60s along the KS border.

Over the fcst area, temps were in the 80s to around 90 across th e
plains, with75-80 in the valleys.

Rest of Today into Tonight...

Main concern will be thunderstorm activity over the plains. As of 2
pm, a few storms were starting to develop over the Raton Mesa, and
expect storms should start to go over the Palmer. These storms will
push east and work into the more unstable and sheared atmosphere out
east, and this will allow for the potential for the storms to
increase in intensity. Overall best environment will be along the
Raton Mesa and along to CO/KS border later this afternoon and
evening.

Later tonight, some guidance continues to indicate that another
round of storms may initiate along the I-25 corridor and push east,
and these storms may continue to be in an elevated unstable
environment and could be strong. These storms may last well into
the early morning hours out east.

Otherwise, with the drier air advecting west, mountains should
remain dry.

Tomorrow...

All of plains is outlooked for svr storms tomorrow, with areas north
and east of La Junta in Slight Risk. Can`t argue with this outlook
as guidance pushes 50s and 60 dwpts back west late tonight and the
low level atmosphere should be rather unstable tomorrow with CAPE
values by afternoon in the 1500-2000 range per ensemble svr wx
guidance. Good upslope combined with 30 knts of mid level westerlies
should yield favorable deep shear. Overall, expect it to be a bit
busier tomorrow given a rather favorable Day-2 setup over the
region.

Interior higher terrain is likely to remain dry, and it will be
breezy over the central mtns with winds in the 20 to 40 mph range
across the higher elevations of the central mtns. Overall, max temps
tomorrow will be 2 to 4 degrees cooler than today.

If we can get a fairly decent MCS set up over western KS tonight
(and a moist outflow push back towards the mtns), then tomorrows
severe weather threat could be higher. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Wednesday night-Independence Day Night...Latest models continue to
indicate a broad northwest flow pattern across the Central Rockies,
with occasional short waves translating through the westerly flow
across the Northern Tier as a large ridge of high pressure builds
across the West Coast. A passing Northern Rockies wave late
Wednesday night is expected to send a cold front across the Eastern
Colorado through the day Thursday, with increasing low level
moisture expected across eastern Colorado within developing upslope
flow Thursday afternoon and evening. Despite the drier air aloft
working into Western Colorado, latest models are indicating enough
moisture to work with another ripple within the northwest flow aloft
to support increasing clouds and isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over and near the eastern mtns Thursday evening, with
the potential for storms to roll south and east across the southeast
Plains Thursday night.  With a faster timing of the cold front,
temperatures on Independence Day now look to be at to slightly below
seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across
the southeast Plains and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher
terrain, save into the lower 80s across the high mountain valleys.
With the breezy northwest flow aloft on Thursday, there still could
be pockets of near critical fire weather conditions across portions
of south central Colorado, especially along the ContDvd.

Friday-Sunday...Moderate northwest flow aloft continues across the
region, with continued upslope flow across the southeast plains
keeping temperatures below seasonal levels on Friday. With low level
moisture in place and another passing wave, there will continue to
be chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over
and near the Southeast Mountains, with chances of showers and storms
rolling across the southeast Plains once again Friday evening and
night. Warmer and drier conditions are now in the offing on Saturday
with another embedded wave moving across the Rockies on Sunday
bringing chances of showers and storms for areas over and near
the Southeast Mountains and Plains, and slightly cooler temperatures.
Again, the breezy northwest flow aloft could keep pockets of near
critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central
Colorado through the Holiday Weekend.

For Monday into early next week, models do suggest the upper level
high across the West Coast to begin to push east, with some mid
level moisture return around the high leading to daily chances
of afternoon showers and storms areawide, with temperatures around
seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will generally be light, but a cool front will pass
southward down the plains affecting KCOS and KPUB later this
afternoon. Brief gusty NE winds may occur after fropa. Isolated
showers may accompany the front. A better chance of some
convection will occur late this evening (04-06 UTC) and may
briefly affect KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH