Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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696 FXUS65 KPUB 291736 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1136 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler today with another round of thunderstorms, a few strong to severe along the southeast mountain/adjacent plains interface and southern plains south of highway 50. - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday for much of the region. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday, with the greatest concern for severe weather across the plains, where all severe weather hazards will be possible. - Rain showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. - Drier conditions return for the later half of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The cold front has pushed through the southeast plains this morning with a few more hours of northerly wind gusting up to 35 mph possible before 0900. Winds will shift around from the east this afternoon advecting 50s to lower 60 dew points back towards the mountains by this evening. Heights aloft rise today as the upper ridge to the south edges northward, however this also brings the subtropical moisture tap northward into southern sections of the area by afternoon. With weak perturbations embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around noon, and gradually spread eastward into the adjacent plains by early evening. Soundings look capped across the far eastern plains today, but some CAMS do spread convection eastward across the plains during the evening and overnight hours as the low level jet intensifies and upglides overtop the front to the south resulting in elevated overnight convection. Much of southeast CO is outlooked under a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today as deep layer shear increases. The higher CAPE will likely hug the southern I-25 corridor and southern plains south of highway 50 today...in better proximity to the front. It will be dependent on timing of the advection of 50 dew points back westward towards the I-25 corridor this afternoon as to how much CAPE will be available during prime afternoon heating, especially north of highway 50. However given the shear in place (40 kts) and potential for CAPE up to 1000 J/kg across southern areas, one or two severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the most favored areas in the lee of the southern Sangres and the Raton Mesa region. High temperatures today should be quite a bit cooler than yesterday, especially across the plains where highs get knocked back into the 80s. Overnight lows will remain on the warm side given persistent cloud cover and stratus development across the plains. -KT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Sunday: The end of the weekend is expected to bring some busy weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, southwesterly to westerly flow will prevail as the area sits between a ridge to the southeast and more dynamic flow to the northwest, and then within that flow, a minor shortwave will drift over the region. Along with that, winds at the surface will take on a more southeasterly component, and advect rich moisture into the area, though mostly over the plains. With the uptick in forcing from the shortwave and the abundant moisture streaming into the area, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, with the greatest coverage of precipitation during the afternoon and early evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms will initially blossom along the higher terrain during the early afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms expanding across the valleys and plains during the mid to late afternoon. Along with all of that, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, particularly across the plains. At this point, deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in strong agreement of at least mid 60 dewpoints streaming over the plains (though how far west is still in question) and moderate instability materializing where moisture is highest, with uptrends in shear. This environment will support organized convection, with supercells possible, capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. In addition though, with recent uptrends in shear and low level veering winds, there is an increasing concern for a tornado or two across the plains. With all of that said though, there is a glaring failure mode for severe weather across the plains, and that is will there be enough forcing to pop convection and then sustain it? If forcing is too weak, then thunderstorms will remain more tied to and immediately around the terrain, where as if it`s stronger, synoptically and/or at the surface, then thunderstorm initiation would be expected with a supercell or two likely, capable of producing all severe weather hazards. Finally with all of that said, precipitation present over the region will start to lessen in coverage and intensity during the mid to late evening hours as forcing and instability wane. As for temperatures, a warm to hot day is expected. A cold frontal passage late Friday will help to keep temperatures from getting too hot, with much of the area hovering around seasonal values for late June. Monday - Wednesday: For the first half of the upcoming week, active weather continues for the area. Messy flow will remain in place as shortwaves drift over south central and southeastern Colorado in the overall westerly to southwesterly flow. And while moisture will remain in place, it is expected to start mixing out more, so moisture quality will start to drop. With that all said though, the combination of the waves and moisture will allow for additional days of afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms across the region, especially along the mountains, where forcing will be strongest. Along with that though, a cold front will race southward within the Tuesday - Wednesday timeframe, and that feature will also help blossom more rain showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the eastern plains. Temperatures during this period will hover around seasonal values for early July. Wednesday is likely to be the coolest day given the cold front passage Tuesday into Wednesday. Thursday - Friday: Quieter weather returns during the later half of the upcoming week. A ridge of high pressure will push in from the west and sit across the western CONUS, causing northwesterly flow to prevail over the region. Not only will forcing lessen with this pattern, but moisture will be scoured out. With weaker forcing and less moisture, drier conditions are anticipated, though with isolated showers and thunderstorms still expected along the mountains each afternoon. Looking at temperatures, the warm to hot values continue, with near seasonal temperatures expected. Additional cold fronts may be pushed southward during this timeframe, and help to cool the area to below seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours early this afternoon, before showers and thunderstorms begin to push off the terrain and near or over both stations after 23Z this afternoon. MVFR conditions during thunderstorms will be possible, along with gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds from around 00Z through 06Z this evening. MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities are also expected from 06Z through around 14-16Z tomorrow morning due to stratus and upslope conditions, and could persist longer at KCOS. For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a slight chance for vicinity showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly from 23Z until 03Z. Winds are expected to be mostly light today, but could be gusty and variable near thunderstorm activity later this evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...EHR