Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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087 FXUS65 KPUB 300953 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 353 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering moisture will lead to showers and storms today. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main concerns. - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the mid-week, with increased chances in the late afternoon and evening hours. - Drier conditions return for Fourth of July, which will mean less thunderstorm coverage for many, but a marginal fire danger for some. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Lingering low-level moisture will be present across the area today beneath the upper ridge. Current radar shows a wide swath of showers and thunderstorms across our far southeast plains, producing plenty of rainfall as things slowly move off to the northeast. Will have to monitor for potential flash flood conditions as we move into the early morning hours due to training, widespread storms. However, rainfall rates and flash flood guidance do not suggest the need for any highlights at this time. Given lingering surface moisture, high dewpoints, and modest energy moving across the area via an embedded wave, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue today. However, there is some decreased forecast confidence as far as coverage and timing are concerned. Looking at the potential for the formation for stronger thunderstorms this afternoon, SPC shows a marginal risk for severe weather across most of our CWA. Moist air advecting in from the southeast will increase CAPE values to over 1500 J/kg for the eastern plains. However, overnight convection combined with widespread cloud cover may actually serve to increase stability and limit the extent and strength of any storms. Some of the high-res forecast soundings do show a stable layer inversion setting up later this morning. However, even in this case some passing showers will still certainly be possible. The timing of precipitation over the plains will also depend on the speed of the passing wave aloft. If the plains see precipitation today, the best chances will be during the late afternoon into early evening. Meanwhile, the passing wave and lingering moisture will spark showers and thunderstorms across portions of our higher terrain today, where the extra topographical forcing will increase chances for storms becoming strong to severe. Our main impacts of concern for this afternoon will be efficient rain producing storms resulting in flash flood risks for vulnerable areas (burn scars, debris flow areas, etc.). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 323 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The forecast period begins with GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble agreement that a mid-level ridge will be centered over the OK-TX border with a weak trough to the NW, with its axis centered over Idaho and Montana. This will put southeastern Colorado in a southwesterly flow on Monday with models indicating a short wave will push across the San Luis Valley earlier in the day and into the I-25 corridor and southeastern Plains late Monday afternoon into the evening. This mid-level forcing, coupled with increased moisture in a southwesterly flow will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop initially over the San Juans, San Luis Valley, and central Mountains, then later in the day along and east of the I-25 corridor. Instability appears to be fairly weak (SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) with moderate shear (0-6km bulk 30- 40kts) and thus a couple of strong to possible severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. For Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge to the southeast will shift further east as the broad trough also shifts east of the area. This will put the area in more of a zonal flow into the mid- week, with diurnally driven thunderstorms possible each day. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out in this period for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the SE Plains. For the 4th of July and into the early weekend, a mid-level trough is anticipated to pass north of the area and put the area in more of northwesterly mid-level flow. This coupled with high pressure in place should allow for a mostly dry Thursday across the area. A marginal fire weather threat will enter the forecast Thursday, as RH values drop to critical values, but winds may not quite be strong enough to necessitate fire weather products. A cold front is progged to push south across the area Thursday night. Thursday night and into the weekend, ensembles are hinting at more increased humidity and ultimately shower and thunderstorm activity over the I- 25 corridor and eastward across the SE Plains. For temperatures, forecast is closest to the National Blend of Models (NBM). Expect highs to be around 5 degrees above normal Monday through Thursday. In the wake of the front, highs will be 5- 10 degrees below normal on Friday, returning closer to normal values for the weekend. /04-Woodrum/ && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. There may be some briefly lived reductions to visibility and cloud ceilings, first this morning near KCOS due to potential fog formation, as well as at all three terminals this afternoon due to nearby shower formation off of the nearby higher terrain. If showers and storms do manage to develop over or near a TAF site, expect gusty erratic outflow winds and reduced vis from moderate to heavy rainfall. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for COZ088-094- 099. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...WOODRUM AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO