466
FXUS65 KPUB 302052
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
252 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this
  evening, a few of which could be severe. Main risks include:
  flash flooding, 1 to 2 inch hail, damaging winds gusting up
  to 60 mph, and lightning.

- Thunderstorms decrease begin to decrease in coverage, and
  especially in intensity, for our Monday.

- Drier conditions, especially across south central Colorado,
  leading to increasing fire danger through the 4th of July
  Holiday Week and Weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Currently..

Temperatures have climbed into the 70s and 80s across the plains,
with dewpoints holding steady in the 50s and 60s for most locations.
Morning stratus lingered over many areas, but finally burned off
around noon, giving way to mostly sunny skies for a majority of the
plains. This has allowed warm and moist conditions for the area.
Cumulus is developing, which can be seen on satellite imagery, and a
few showers and weak storms are already present on radar as of 2pm
as well, mainly across the La Garitas and the southern I-25
corridor. So far, not much lighting to speak of for our area, but
we`re seeing strong southeasterly low-level flow across our plains.
SPC mesoanalysis is painting highest instability across our southern
plains early this afternoon, with the best shear over our far
northeastern plains, but those two areas have the potential to
overlap more later on this evening.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

While the likelihood of widespread severe development is looking low
for today, we are very moist. For the most part, our most favorable
shear and most favorable instability do not seem to overlap during
peak heating. Later this evening, there is a potential for some
outflow interaction to aid in the development of some stronger
storms, especially across the Arkansas River Valley, where SPC
mesoanalysis depicts higher shear values, which could help to keep
storms more organized. If stronger storms are able to develop and
become severe, the main risks with storms on our plains today will
be excessive rainfall and flash flooding, 1 to 2 inch hail, damaging
winds with gusts to 60 mph, and lightning. Excessive rainfall will
also be possible with storms over the mountains today, especially
for our flood prone areas, to include burn scars, and the Chalk
Cliffs.

Tomorrow...

For Monday, the upper high will be situated to our southeast,
allowing for southwest flow aloft over Colorado. Moisture will be
much less for Monday than what we`ve seen through this weekend,
which will be most evident in our thunderstorm intensity and our
decreased humidity values. We`ll go from around 35-50% humidity
ranges on our plains today to around 25-32% humidity ranges on our
plains tomorrow. While another round of showers and thunderstorms
can be expected with the passage of more shortwave energy riding
through the ridge tomorrow, storm intensity is expected to decrease,
especially over our plains. Storm coverage is also expected to
decrease somewhat as well, mainly over our plains. We will see less
of a risk for excessive rainfall over the plains, as storms will
become a bit higher based as drier air begins to make its way into
the the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will, in turn, increase
the risk for outflow winds gusting up to 45mph across our plains for
tomorrow. Outside of thunderstorm chances, expect daytime highs to
to be a few degrees warmer than normal, with mid to upper 90s and a
few triple digits across the plains, 70s and low 80s for mountain
valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A fairly active west to northwest flow pattern sets up across the
Rockies throughout the upcoming work week, with several embbedded
waves progged to translate through the stronger flow across the
Northern Tier sending occasional fronts across Eastern Colorado.
These fronts, on Tuesday night into Wednesday and again late Thursday
night into Friday morning, will bring increased low level moisture and
chances of precipitation to Eastern Colorado through the work week,
while much drier air aloft remains progged to work into the Central
Rockies, as the westerly flow pushes subtropical moisture south and
east of the region. With that said, there will be enough residual
moisture to keep isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms
in place across the area throughout the work week, with the best coverage
expected across the eastern mountains and plains on Wednesday and again
on Friday, behind the aforemention passing fronts. With the drier air
aloft working into the region, and moderate westerly flow aloft at times,
there will be increasing fire danger through out the week, especially on
Thursday (July 4th), with the potential for critical fire weather
conditions across portions of south central and southeast Colorado.
Temperatures around seasonal levels expected through out the work week,
save for slightly cooler temperatures across eastern Colorado on
Wednesday and possibibly well below seasonal in the mid 70s to mid 80s
on Friday, depending on how deep the upslope flow is behind Thursday
night`s front.

For Saturday and into early next week, latest model guidance indicates
an analmously strong northwest flow pattern across the Rockies, with a
broad upper trough in place across the Upper Great Lakes into the Upper
Midwest as upper level ridging builds across the West Coast. Ensemble
data also indicates PWATs well below normal within the northwest flow
aloft, leading to continued drier conditions and increased fire danger
areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Outside of of thunderstorm chances this afternoon and into this
evening, VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the
forecast period. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected this afternoon and this evening, mainly between 21Z and
03Z. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be possible near and
over station with storms today. For KCOS, a brief period of MVFR
ceilings will be possible while southeasterly winds persist later
this evening, mainly between 06Z and 12Z. This will depend heavily
on how persistent the southeasterlies are through the overnight
hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR