173
FXUS65 KPIH 292009
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
209 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
As expected, it`s been much warmer this afternoon across eastern
Idaho as a ridge of high pressure amplified over the area
throughout the last 24 hours. Afternoon satellite shows not much
in the way of cloud cover with much of the region experiencing
sunny to mostly sunny conditions. Temps have warmed into the 80s
across the lower elevations and will likely get into the 90s in
the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley before all is set and done.
Today will be the warmest day of the weekend with some changes in
store for Sunday. As far as the rest of today is concerned, not
expecting much in the way of impacts with light winds continuing
and precip chances below 10 percent.

Things change tomorrow as a trough moves in the Pacific northwest.
This will tighten the pressure gradient over our area and winds will
increase during the morning and into the afternoon hours. They
should stay below headline levels but it will be noticeably breezy,
around 15-20 mph, for a good chunk of the area. Clouds will also
increase throughout the day as we start to feel the influence of the
trough to our north. Best precip chances will be across Montana but
some low end PoPs (20-40 percent) continue across the Snake Plain,
eastern highlands and into the south hills. Increased cloud cover
and lower H5 heights should keep daytime highs in the 80s tomorrow
although some low 90s along the far southern extent of the region,
close to Utah, could be realized. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday
A cold front moving through eastern Idaho early Monday will bring
some cooler temperatures for Monday afternoon and a chance for
showers and storms. Highs on Monday will range from the 70s
farther north and east in the higher elevations to low 80s in the
lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley. As the front passes
through, the best chance for showers and storms will be in the
upper Snake Plain, Central Mountains, and Eastern Highlands with a
40 to 60 percent chance up in the Island Park area. Winds gusts
remain elevated on Monday with parts of the eastern Magic Valley
and Snake Plain gusting around 30 to 40 mph, especially out across
the Arco Desert and farther southwest through the Craters of the
Moon area. While most of the moisture wraps up by Tuesday,there is
about a 15 to 25 percent chance of a lingering shower or storm up
the Island Park area. Winds will diminish each evening and
through the overnight hours, but expect wind gusts each afternoon
to range from 25 to 35 mph each day. Tuesday through Saturday will
be mostly dry days as our highs continue to warm each day and
while we warm through the 80s during the week, many will be back
into the low and mid 90s by Saturday afternoon. We will be keeping
an eye on a low dropping south out of Canada Wednesday into
Thursday since if it tracks farther south than its current
forecast path, it could bring the potential for some showers and
storms to more of our area on the 4th. By next weekend, a dome of
high pressure will be in place of much of the Southwest US and
potentially bringing some of the hottest weather of the year to
our area. AMM


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the period with mostly clear
skies with no precip forecast until at least mid-afternoon Sunday.
Winds will remain light today but will increase after daybreak
tomorrow to around 15 kts with some occasional higher gusts. Clouds
will increase tomorrow after 18Z with some low-end precip chances
likely at KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ just beyond the current 18Z forecast
cycle. McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The rest of Saturday is expected to be fairly quiet, weather-wise.
While a couple of the hi-res models show a stray shower or two late
tonight, that is a 10 percent or less chance. Our chances will
increase on Sunday as a Pacific trough arrives. The best chance (30
to 50 percent) for showers and storms on Sunday will exist in FWZ
475 and 476 with a 30 to 50 percent chance in FWZ 410, 411, 413,
425, and 427 as we get into the evening/overnight. Wind gusts will
also pick up on Sunday, into the 30 to 40 mph through most of
eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain and with min RHs in the upper
teens and low 20s in this area, we will see near-critical fire
weather conditions. These near-critical conditions are expected to
continue on Monday, which is when the HREF is highlighting the
western half of Zone 410 with about a 10 to 20 percent chance of RH
less than 15 percent and wind speed greater than 20 mph since gusts
will still be in the 30 to 40 mph range. As this point, we are
forecasting min RHs around 17 to 18 percent across the Arco Desert
on Monday and in the low to mid 20s through the rest of the Snake
Plain and eastern Magic Valley. After Monday, precipitation chances
will remain low through the rest of the week with afternoon
temperatures warming and min RHs with Wednesday looking like a day
to keep an eye on as far as strong wind gusts and RHs in the low to
mid teens for almost all of eastern Idaho.
AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$