Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
423 FXUS65 KPIH 040853 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 253 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Fri night. High pressure is strengthening over the US west coast. This keeps the upper level flow northwesterly and helps slow the warm up. Today afternoon highs are expected in the Snake River plain in the 70s, with 80s returning on Fri. The moisture stays on the east side of the Continental Divide with the anchor upper level low in the northern Great Plains. There is a surge in the warm up from Today to Fri afternoon of 6 to 10 deg F with the weaker wind not allowing as much adiabatic mixing. There is also some clouds today, but none on Fri. Overnight lows are warming only 1 to 4 deg F from one day to the next. Messick .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday. Main theme of long term is hot and dry. The weekend will be the coolest part of the extended as as weak cold front will push through Saturday in strong northwesterly flow aloft and it will also be the breeziest day. Expect 10 to 20 mph sustained winds Saturday with above normal temperatures with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Highs Sunday behind the front will be mid to upper 70s to upper 80s valleys. Next week the strong upper level ridge axis will move over Idaho and very hot conditions are expected. By Monday low elevation highs will move into the 90s and by Wednesday and Thursday many low elevation sites will reach 100 degrees. At this point fairly high confidence in the extreme temperatures by the middle of next week as most long range models in agreement in placement of the upper level ridge. Winds will be mainly light after Saturday and no precipitation is forecast through the entirety of the long term period. GK && .AVIATION...No impacts with generally excellent flying conditions with clear skies and some diurnal increases of winds to near 10 knots this afternoon at PIH and IDA. Will have same conditions on Saturday. GK && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will strengthen along the west coast. Northwest flow and some occasional cloudiness today tempers the warm up today, but clearer skies on Fri will allow stronger warming and drying on Fri, and more warming and drying on Sat, with temperatures finally warming above normal. Not much wind expected the next two days. But an approaching trough will increase the wind for Sat. Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$