108
FXUS65 KPIH 020648
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1248 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday. On the back side of the first
low, expect a few showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
highlands. Higher resolution models also want to kick off a few
storms from around Gilmore Summit and Lone Pine back toward
Mackay. For now, we left those chances at under 10% back that far
southwest. We will see a second low drop south into Montana
tomorrow. This will increase the chance of showers and storms
across the eastern highlands south to around Rexburg and Idaho
Falls. Rainfall both days will be pretty sparse. The bigger
concern will be increasing winds tomorrow across the area. The
strongest winds will be across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and
into the South Hills. We will be hitting the low end for LAKE
WIND thresholds on American Falls Reservoir, so we will see if the
trend continues later today for the potential for any type of
headline. Temperatures stay pretty much status quo through the
next 48 hours.  Keyes

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

Extended forecast is dominated by the presence of the upper level
ridge centered over central California on Thursday. We will remain
in northwest flow on the edge of the ridge through Saturday which
will keep our temperatures seasonable. However, as we move through
the weekend and into early next week. The overwhelming majority of
models (now over 85% confidence) that the ridge will reposition
inland and we will see above normal temperatures. We should start
seeing 90s either Sunday or Monday with ensembles support mid to
upper 90s by midweek. If the trend holds, we could see our first
heat products of the summer issued mid to late next week. Forecast
looks dry through the extended as the ridge will deflect weather
systems to our east.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions with mainly light winds across
the area today. SUN should see typical switch to upvalley winds
this afternoon with gradual shift to southwesterly mid to late
afternoon.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...On the back side of yesterday`s storm, expect some
lingering showers and storms around Monida Pass and Island Park
through tonight. A few MAY develop from around Lone Pine and
Gilmore Summit back toward Mackay, but that chance is very low at
under 10%. Today`s storms certainly will be on the dry side, with
a more isolated area of 10-20% for wetting rains around Island
Park. Wind gusts will be much lower, around 20-25 mph on the high
end, and not as widespread. Wednesday looks to more breezy
areawide, along with a chance of showers and isolated storms
across Lemhi County southeast across the upper end of Zone 410 and
all of Zone 411. Again, wetting rains will be sparse with a pocket
of 20-30% for the high end around Island Park. There is a 10-40%
chance of outflow winds over 35 mph. Outside of storms, gusts of
20-30mph will be common. Probability forecasts have a 50-80%
chance of gusts hitting 40 mph across the higher elevations of the
central mountains, with an 80+% chance of hitting 40 mph across
the Snake Plain, Magic Valley and points south toward Utah. The
current Blend of Models is only hitting 30-35mph so we certainly
have some room to trends those speeds upward if the trend
continues. Afternoon humidity drops with sub-15% values for some
valleys in the central mountains, as well as most of the Magic
Valley(425), Snake Plain(410), Zone 427 and 413. In other words,
we are definitely looking at elevated fire concerns. For the 4th
of July, we remain dry with PERHAPS a storm or two around Island
Park. The rest of the week and weekend will trend much warmer and
definitely dry. Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$