681
FXUS61 KPHI 012258
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
658 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Tuesday before moving offshore
Wednesday. A more active period resumes Thursday with the arrival of
a surface trough but a cold front may not push through the region
until towards the end of this coming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No changes from previous discussion.

High pressure will continue to build closer to the region,
resulting in decreasing winds and continued tranquil conditions.
As it builds closer, widespread subsidence will develop,
dissipating any lingering stratocumulus by early this evening.
Lows tonight are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal,
while tomorrow highs should recover to be near normal. The one
possible exception to this is close to the coast as it appears
to be a prime set up for a sea breeze, which could keep
temperatures at the coast slightly lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure centered near the area Tuesday evening will continue
to dominate our weather through Wednesday bringing mainly clear
skies. Lows Tuesday night will be a touch warmer compared to Monday
night as well, mainly in the low-mid 60s, except upper 50s in the
typical cool spots. The high will continue to progress eastward into
Wednesday as it slips offshore. This will shift winds to be more
southerly, strengthen slightly, and begin to slowly draw more warm
and moist air back into the region. Wednesday looks to remain
pleasant overall though with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s and
dew points in the upper 50s to near 60.

Things start to change as we head into the holiday. There will be a
fairly broad upper level trough with an associated surface low
moving through eastern Canada and this will push a warm front into
the region Wednesday night followed by a weak cold front approaching
from the north later on the 4th. This will bring warmer temperatures
for the 4th with the big story being the increase in humidity.
Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in
the upper 60s to low 70s. The result will be apparent temperature
values maxing out in the mid 90s. There will also be more in the way
of cloud cover with increasing chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon into the evening. While we`re
not looking at a total washout all day rain type of event, the
favored timing during the afternoon and evening will not be ideal.
Right now POPs are generally around 40 to 50 percent. At this point,
widespread severe weather doesn`t look to be huge threat but with
PWATs progged to reach 2.0+ inches it could end up being more of a
flooding / flash flooding set up. Again, still a few days out so
this will be refined as we get closer in time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The forecast looks to remain on the unsettled side at times through
much of the holiday weekend period. This will be due to a frontal
boundary getting hung up in the area as a series of impulses move
through. The result will be continuing very warm to hot and humid
conditions with chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and evening periods.
POPs are a little lower for Friday (generally around 30 to 40
percent) before increasing to around 50 percent for Saturday as an
approaching cold front will bring a threat for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms. While this is still several days out,
Saturday looks like it could be the more favored day for severe
weather. Expect highs then mainly in the low to mid 90s (cooler
right near the coast and over the southern Poconos) with dew points
in the 70s potentially bringing heat indicies over 100. If this
forecast were to hold, heat headlines will end up being needed.
Beyond Saturday it will likely stay quite warm but trend less humid
with decreasing chances for precip for Sunday and Monday in the wake
of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Winds north around 5-10 knots, becoming light
and variable at some TAF sites (especially KABE, KMIV, and
KRDG). High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Winds gradually shifting from
NNE to ESE at 10 kt or less. However, a sea breeze may develop
and affect KACY and KMIV which could result in a quick shift to
SE winds with wind speeds of 10 to 15 KT. If a sea breeze
develops, it would be most likely to affect the terminals
between 18 and 00Z. High confidence on the overall pattern,
moderate confidence on sea breeze development.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.

Thursday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances
(30-50%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon and evenings
each day. The best chances for more widespread showers and storms
looks to be Saturday at this point.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory Criteria
through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Saturday...Conditions are forecast to be below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

Tuesday...Northeast winds around 10 mph, becoming easterly in
the afternoon. Breaking waves around 1-2 feet. This yields a LOW
risk of the development of dangerous rip currents for both the
Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

Wednesday...Southeast winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves
remain around 1-2 feet. Despite more of an onshore flow, with
light conditions expected, have continued with a LOW risk of
dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware
Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Johnson/MJL
SHORT TERM...AKL/Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...AKL/Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MJL
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Johnson