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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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447 FXUS61 KPHI 020144 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 944 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in through Tuesday before moving offshore Wednesday. A more active period resumes Thursday with the arrival of a surface trough but a cold front may not push through the region until towards the end of this coming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... No changes from previous discussion. High pressure will continue to build closer to the region, resulting in decreasing winds and continued tranquil conditions. As it builds closer, widespread subsidence will develop, dissipating any lingering stratocumulus by early this evening. Lows tonight are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal, while tomorrow highs should recover to be near normal. The one possible exception to this is close to the coast as it appears to be a prime set up for a sea breeze, which could keep temperatures at the coast slightly lower. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure centered near the area Tuesday evening will continue to dominate our weather through Wednesday bringing mainly clear skies. Lows Tuesday night will be a touch warmer compared to Monday night as well, mainly in the low-mid 60s, except upper 50s in the typical cool spots. The high will continue to progress eastward into Wednesday as it slips offshore. This will shift winds to be more southerly, strengthen slightly, and begin to slowly draw more warm and moist air back into the region. Wednesday looks to remain pleasant overall though with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to near 60. Things start to change as we head into the holiday. There will be a fairly broad upper level trough with an associated surface low moving through eastern Canada and this will push a warm front into the region Wednesday night followed by a weak cold front approaching from the north later on the 4th. This will bring warmer temperatures for the 4th with the big story being the increase in humidity. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. The result will be apparent temperature values maxing out in the mid 90s. There will also be more in the way of cloud cover with increasing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon into the evening. While we`re not looking at a total washout all day rain type of event, the favored timing during the afternoon and evening will not be ideal. Right now POPs are generally around 40 to 50 percent. At this point, widespread severe weather doesn`t look to be huge threat but with PWATs progged to reach 2.0+ inches it could end up being more of a flooding / flash flooding set up. Again, still a few days out so this will be refined as we get closer in time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The forecast looks to remain on the unsettled side at times through much of the holiday weekend period. This will be due to a frontal boundary getting hung up in the area as a series of impulses move through. The result will be continuing very warm to hot and humid conditions with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and evening periods. POPs are a little lower for Friday (generally around 30 to 40 percent) before increasing to around 50 percent for Saturday as an approaching cold front will bring a threat for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. While this is still several days out, Saturday looks like it could be the more favored day for severe weather. Expect highs then mainly in the low to mid 90s (cooler right near the coast and over the southern Poconos) with dew points in the 70s potentially bringing heat indicies over 100. If this forecast were to hold, heat headlines will end up being needed. Beyond Saturday it will likely stay quite warm but trend less humid with decreasing chances for precip for Sunday and Monday in the wake of the cold front. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Winds north around 5-10 knots, becoming light and variable at some TAF sites (especially KABE, KMIV, and KRDG). High confidence. Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Winds gradually shifting from NNE to ESE at 10 kt or less. However, a sea breeze may develop and affect KACY and KMIV which could result in a quick shift to SE winds with wind speeds of 10 to 15 KT. If a sea breeze develops, it would be most likely to affect the terminals between 18 and 00Z. High confidence on the overall pattern, moderate confidence on sea breeze development. Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather. Thursday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (30-50%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon and evenings each day. The best chances for more widespread showers and storms looks to be Saturday at this point. && .MARINE... Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory Criteria through Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday through Saturday...Conditions are forecast to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Rip Currents... Tuesday...Northeast winds around 10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 1-2 feet. This yields a LOW risk of the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Wednesday...Southeast winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves remain around 1-2 feet. Despite more of an onshore flow, with light conditions expected, have continued with a LOW risk of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL NEAR TERM...Johnson/MJL SHORT TERM...AKL/Fitzsimmons LONG TERM...AKL/Fitzsimmons AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MJL MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Johnson