198
FXUS61 KPBZ 070036 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
836 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms return on Monday with a slow moving cold
front. Some of the rain may be heavy with localized flooding
possible. The boundary stalls Tuesday and an unsettled pattern
will bring daily rain chances throughout the week along with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions expected through tonight.
---------------------------------------------------------------

The afternoon diurnal cu field should dissipate around sunset
with the loss of daytime heating, followed by another quiet
night with the warming trend continuing as lows remain in the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Some patchy fog and haze will be
possible again late tonight into early Mon morning as moisture
continues to advect back into the region and wind remains light
or calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot on Monday with heat indices in the upper 90s.
- Slow moving showers and storms Monday with a heavy rainfall
  and low-end severe weather threat.
- Boundary slows and stalls across northern WV maintaining daily
  precip chances.
----------------------------------------------------------------

An upper trough enters the region Monday and begins to flatten
out as it does so. Favorable timing of it will push Chantal`s
remnants to our east as Bermuda high pressure helps deflect it
to the north and east form the Carolinas. What we will see
locally is a weak cold front extending southward from a low
pressure system in Ontario slowly sweep through. Warm and moist
advection will continue ahead of the boundary and give the
region another chance to see high temperatures exceeding 90
degrees (60-90% south of I-80 but lower farther north owing to
increasing cloud coverage). Heat indices will creep up into the
upper 90s and some locales, especially urban areas and valleys,
may see 100. With increasing cloud cover/heavy rain arriving in
the afternoon, and the threat for advisory criteria very
localized, opted for no heat headlines in coordination with
neighbors.

The front will creep into our forecast area by the late
morning/early afternoon hours as convection fires along it aided by
daytime heating. Some showers may be ongoing in the morning across
northwest PA/eastern OH in weak pre-frontal convergence, but
not seeing more widespread development until later. The
environment will be supportive of heavy rain producers with
ensemble mean PWAT values >1.75", MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, deep
warm cloud depths nearing 16,000 feet, and weak flow
characterized by MBE vectors around 10 knots oriented close to
boundary parallel. With the HREF in play, we have a better idea
of what sort of rainfall rates/amounts could be possible.
Probability for 1"/hour rates at any given hour tomorrow
afternoon and evening is as high as 60% and pegs the I-80
corridor. Even 2"/hour rates aren`t completely off the table
with some 10-20% blobs showing up. Total amounts through Monday
night exhibit a 40-70% probability of one inch, and a 15-30%
probability of two inches again with highest chances north of
Pittsburgh. With some time to recover since our last heavy rain
event, the area won`t be quite as hydrophobic, but soil
moistures are still elevated, so a flash flood risk is certainly
there and we remain in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive
rainfall.

The other mention will be a low-end severe risk as a Marginal Risk
(1/5) clips our northern counties. With the aforementioned
destabilization, we`ll have the instability in play, but shear will
be weak overall (<20 knots deep layer). This points toward a water
loaded downburst threat given the PWATs, especially in any areas
that would see just a bit of mid-level drier air intrusion and nudge
up in DCAPE, which is possible to the north coincident with where
we`re outlooked for severe. A hail threat is nearly null given the
high moisture content and weak shear both detrimental to hail growth.

The boundary really struggles to move headed into the middle of the
week as mid-level flow parallels it. Latest ensemble clusters will
peg northern WV as the most likely spot for it to sit with solutions
coming into better agreement in the mid-levels. This is going to
provide us with daily, diurnally driven rain chances within the
proximity of the boundary as daytime heating fires showers and
storms off of it. A relief from the higher PWAT air seems unlikely,
so any of these showers and storms will be capable of locally heavy
rainfall. Southern and eastern portions of our region have been
included in a Tuesday Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall.
The highest precip probabilities will remain mainly south of the
Mason Dixon line Tuesday along the front, though lower end
probabilities will exist farther north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Stalled boundary plagues the area with daily precip chances
  through the end of the week
- Another system favored to move in over the weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A similar story for Wednesday keeping highest PoPs south of
Pittsburgh before low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes lifts
the boundary back up north as a warm front. This will overspread
higher precip chances to the area on Thursday and Friday as
additional waves of low pressure ride along the front. We should
finally rid our area of that disturbance just in time for another
one to develop out of the Northern Plains and bring yet another
unsettled pattern next weekend. Still some ensemble disagreement on
how that evolves, but not seeing too much confidence in a dry
weekend.

Temperatures are favored to hold just above normal through next
weekend, though with cloud cover and rain around, they may prove to
be slightly cooler than currently forecast in spots.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered cu deck will dissipate after sunset, giving way to
clear skies for western ports with a scattered high cirrus deck
overnight for western ports. Wind is expected to decouple and
orient out of the south overnight after sunset through the early
morning hours.

Into the day, a cu deck is expected to form in the late morning
as winds recouple and gust out of a prevailing southwesterly
direction, veering more westerly late day ahead of a slow-moving
front.

The front, which will cross in the afternoon to evening hours,
will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms with a
conditional severe wind risk, most likely for FKL and DUJ. The
most likely passage time was denoted in a TEMPO/PROB30 group.
TEMPOs denote higher likelihood of storms at FKL/DUJ, while
PROB30s denote lower chances.

Storms are expected to gradually taper overnight with the loss
of favorable ingredients, as wind fills in more northwesterly
and light in its wake. Additional lowering cigs are possible in
cold advection, with MVFR chances increasing rapidly after 00Z.

Outlook...
MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible Monday night in saturation
and cold advection. VFR may return briefly Tuesday before more
storm chances (most likely south of PIT). The rest of the week
will be defined by diurnal storm chances each day.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...Cermak/AK
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Milcarek