Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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179 FXUS63 KPAH 011704 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Anomalously dry air will make for a very pleasant day today, - The heat and humidity will build quickly Tuesday and Wednesday, and possibly linger into Thursday. Triple digit heat indices are expected on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. - Chances of thunderstorms return Wednesday and continue through the weekend. The best chances will be Wednesday night through Friday. A few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall will also be possible. - There is potential for a dry and relatively pleasant weekend, but 4th of July celebrations Wednesday through Friday may be impacted by thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The ECMWF ensembles have a 30 year return interval on dry air at 850mb today, but then have the same interval for moist air at 850mb and 925mb Thursday. So, today will be the pick day of the work week, with very low humidity and high temperatures in the lower 80s, which is around 8 degrees below normal. Enjoy it because the heat and humidity will return quickly. South winds will return Tuesday, as high pressure aloft builds over the Quad State. Humidity will increase and temperatures will climb up to near 90 which is just above normal levels. The heat and humidity will be right back up to near last Saturday`s levels on Wednesday, which will likely require another Heat Advisory for all or a portion of the region. If some portion of the region is not significantly impacted by convection on Thursday, heat indices could reach triple digits and possibly advisory-levels again. A short wave trough moving eastward across Ontario on Wednesday may drag a weak, convectively-aided, surface boundary into northern portions of the Quad State late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given the rather extreme heat and humidity expected ahead of it, convection is a reasonable expectation. However, the ridge is rather stout and may continue to suppress convection until Thursday when another stronger trough makes its approach through the Plains. This system will bring a cold front through the area Friday, which would presumably bring an end to the convective threat and the extreme heat and humidity. Given the very unstable surface air mass, at least isolated severe storms with a damaging wind threat will be possible, despite rather marginal shear. Severe storms would be most likely in the afternoon and evening Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitable water values near 2" will lead to torrential rainfall and possibly some flooding issues in areas that see multiple rounds of storms Wednesday through Friday. Much of the 00Z guidance indicates a dry Saturday with near normal temperatures and less humidity. Most models bring another system into the Plains at some point Sunday into Monday. This will allow south winds and slightly above normal temperatures to return Sunday. Odds are that the Quad State will remain dry Sunday and then see another chance of convection next Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The TAFs are VFR. Steady ENE winds at 6-10 kts (with gusts to around 15 kts at EVV/OWB) will continue through the afternoon under a few passing cirrus clouds. Winds will relax under 5 kts overnight, then shift SE- SSE after 14-16z Tuesday and pick up again at 6-10 kts. A high clouds will encroach on MVN, EVV, and OWB around this time as well, but no operational impacts are expected. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DWS