Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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727 FXUS63 KPAH 271129 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 629 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry end to the work week expected with increasing temperatures into Friday. - Shower and storm chances return on Saturday and linger into the first half of Sunday. Another rain chance returns Wednesday. - Pattern into next week features a battle between oppressive heat and short periods of relief in between. Saturday and Wednesday are forecast to be the most uncomfortable days of the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today through Friday: A surface ridge will be in place across the Quad State today before shifting eastward through the day Friday. Aloft, flow will be more zonal across the area. The combination of the two will allow for a bit quieter conditions through Friday evening. As the surface ridge shifts east on Friday, expect southerly flow to return, pushing moisture northward from the Gulf. Scattered cloud cover will increase Friday afternoon as the aformentioned moisture increases. Temperatures will warm from the mid and upper 80s today to the upper 80s and low 90s on Friday. Humidity values will be noticeably lower today; however, with the return of moisture on Friday, heat index values will push up close to 100 degrees! Saturday and Sunday: A low pressure center is progged to drift from the Upper Great Lakes eastward into southern Ontario and Quebec Saturday night into Sunday morning. As this happens, moisture will steadily lift northward along and ahead of an approaching cold front draped southwest from the low. The forcing doesn`t appear particularly strong along the boundary; however, there is some convergence with the wind shift. This will lead to increasing cloud cover and chances for showers and storms along and ahead of the front. Shear looks to be lacking (around 20kts or less); however, instability will be abundant, so a few pulse-type severe storms will be possible as a line forms on the frontal boundary. In fact, there is a marginal risk of severe for Saturday. The timing looks to be later in the day into the evening hours for the frontal boundary arrival, which may keep most of the day dry and sunny. If that is the case it will feel pretty miserable outside as temperatures may soar into mid to upper 90s! The increase humidity would push heat index values into 105 to 110 degree range by mid afternoon. This is easily within range of a Heat Advisory. Rest of the forecaster: A surface ridge and upper-level ridging is expected to build in for next week, which would allow for continued hot weather for the Quad State area. There will be somewhat of a break in the heat on Monday as the front shifts out of the area; however, the heat quickly builds back for Tuesday and especially on Wednesday with additional heat headlines likely. Another frontal boundary will approach from the north on Wednesday, which will be the next chance for scattered showers and storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Some patchy fog will impact the TAF sites for the first hour or so of this issuance; otherwise, good visibility and ceilings will be the rule. Winds will remain fairly light as high pressure builds across the Quad State area. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...KC