968
FXUS64 KOUN 021700
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mid to upper ridging which has been centered overhead the past few
days will begin to shift slowly eastward today. However, warming
850 temperatures and southwest surface winds will help boost
temperatures at least a couple degrees over yesterday`s values,
with air temperatures at or above 100 degrees expected just about
everywhere. Dewpoints will be a few degrees lower which will help
balance out heat indicies somewhat. Either way, it will still be
quite hot and a heat advisory is in effect areawide.

In addition to the heat, a cold front will bring a chance for
thunderstorms to northwest Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. A hot
and deeply mixed boundary layer will create an environment
conducive for strong to severe wind gusts, which will be the main
hazard today. The severe threat will likely linger a bit into the
evening before weakening with loss of daytime heating.

Finally, elevated fire weather is expected across much of western
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas this afternoon where
hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected amid ongoing flash
drought and dry fuels.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The front is expected to stall across northern Oklahoma by
Wednesday, where showers and storms could linger into the day. This
will also help keep temperatures cooler here, with highs likely only
in the 80`s. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions will continue with
another day of triple digit highs expected.

The heat continues into Thursday (4th of July), but the pattern will
begin to change by later in the day as a stronger cold front moves
into the area. Showers and storms will develop along the front by
late afternoon across northern Oklahoma, with (40-50%) chances
expanding southward into central Oklahoma during the evening, which
could potentially impact those with outdoor holiday plans. Decent
instability but rather weak shear will lend itself to mainly a
damaging wind threat, with heavy rainfall and lightning also a
concern.

Rain chances will linger into Friday but push southward towards the
Red River with the front through the day. Lower heights and central
US troughing then appears to stick around into at least early next
week, which should allow for occasional storm chances and
temperatures near average for this time of year.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Gusty south wind this afternoon with VFR conditions. There will be
a chance for showers and thunderstorms by late this afternoon
impacting WWR and later into the evening at PNC. Main impact with
these would be strong erratic winds. Could see some of this
activity linger through the night and into the morning hours on
Wednesday. Farther south mainly some mid/high clouds with modest
south winds continuing through 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  79 101  80 /   0  10  10  10
Hobart OK        104  79 102  80 /   0  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 104  80 102  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          102  71  90  72 /  30  70  30  20
Ponca City OK    103  75  94  76 /   0  30  30  30
Durant OK        101  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30