283
FXUS64 KOUN 030257
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
957 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Frontal boundary currently across portions of the OK/TX Panhandle
will gradually move into parts of NW OK later this afternoon. Storms
will be possible near this boundary late this afternoon through
tonight. Some of the storms could be severe late this afternoon and
evening with inverted V soundings leading to a damaging wind threat.
The potential for severe storms is expected to diminish after
sunset. Rain chances will continue into Wednesday, generally along
and north of I-40 with highest chances near the frontal boundary.

Heat will continue to be a problem for parts of the fa Wednesday.
Rain and clouds will lead to cooler temperatures (highs in the
80s/low 90s), especially for those areas north of the frontal
boundary. For those areas south of the boundary triple digit highs
will be possible with heat index values of 105+ possible. With this
in mind, issued a heat advisory for areas generally along and S of I-
40. The higher heat index values could be possible in some areas
north of I-40 but with uncertainty of where the boundary and/or
rain/clouds held off on an advisory for now.

Breezy, although not as strong as today, southerly winds will be
possible in parts of the area Wednesday afternoon. This combined
with some lower RH values (around 25%) and dry vegetation may lead
to elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The previously mentioned storm chances will continue Wednesday
evening. Once again some strong to severe storms could be possible
although may depend on what occurs earlier in the day on Wednesday.

The upper pattern shift that began today will continue with broad
upper trough remaining over the central U.S. Models show a stronger
cold front moving into the fa Thursday bringing chance for showers
and storms. Strong/severe storms will be possible on Thursday as
well. So for some, mother nature may provide the fireworks. The
storm chances will continue into Friday but gradually shift towards
the south as the front moves across the region.

The heat will continue across at least parts of the fa Thursday
ahead of the front. The stronger front Thursday is expected to then
bring a bit of a reprieve from the heat with highs on Friday in the
80s. This reprieve is expected to continue over the weekend into
early next week as the upper pattern stays the same and with another
frontal boundary moving across the region late this weekend. Another
round of showers/storms will also be possible with this front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A nearly-stationary front will keep thunderstorm chances across
the northern third of Oklahoma into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be moderately gusty south
of the front and lighter from the southeast to northeast to the
north of it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79 101  80 100 /  10  10   0  20
Hobart OK         80 102  80 102 /  10  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  80 102  80 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           70  90  72  97 /  50  50  20  10
Ponca City OK     75  91  75 100 /  30  40  20  30
Durant OK         79 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ023>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09