684
FXUS64 KOUN 110330
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With heating of moist airmass in southeast parts of the area, a
few showers and storms have developed here this afternoon.
Isolated showers/storms will remain possible the rest of this
afternoon in SE parts of the fa so have added low PoPs (20%) to
the forecast. We still also have ~10% chance for a stray shower
or storm across western Oklahoma into western north Texas through
early evening within a surface trough oriented across the
panhandles into northwest Oklahoma, but the majority of this
activity is expected to stay to our west today. The rest of the
area will remain dry through the rest of the afternoon, with
temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s.

The surface trough will extend a bit further east during the day
tomorrow, which will spread slight chances (10-15%) for showers and
storms eastward into northwestern and northern Oklahoma during the
afternoon and early evening. Highs tomorrow will reach a couple
degrees higher than today, with mid to upper 90s expected for most
spots.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The overall pattern will change very little through early next week
as upper ridging to our west builds slowly eastward and no fronts or
synoptic scale waves are forecast for the area. However, similar
to today, cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm
just about any day as capping does not appear overly strong, but
chances remain <10%. High temperatures will approach 100 degrees
again by Sunday through the middle of next week, but surface
moisture appears more marginal across much of the area for
oppressive heat indices (70+ degree dewpoints are forecast to mix
mainly to our east each afternoon). Still, heat indices could
reach near advisory criteria for eastern parts of the area a few
days during this period.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Cannot completely rule out brief SHRA/TSRA with VFR conditions at
KPNC/KSWO through 12Z, but confidence not high enough to mention.
Will utilize amendments as needed.

VFR conditions and light southerly winds expected through the
period. A weak surface trough will move over KWWR tomorrow
afternoon and switch winds to northerly for several hours, then
back to southerly by end of forecast period. Confidence is fairly
high that we will see at least a few high- based SHRA/TSRA
tomorrow afternoon ahead of trough, but probability of non-VFR
restrictions and/or TSRA at any given terminal are too low (less
than 30 percent) to mention this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  96  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         70  98  72  98 /  10  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  98  73  98 /  10   0  10   0
Gage OK           68  99  70  99 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     71  99  71  99 /  10  10  10   0
Durant OK         71  96  72  96 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11