Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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708 FXUS64 KOUN 271732 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning near the 100th meridian. Confidence is low on the evolution of this convection given it has the appearance of an mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that is nearly stationary in the Texas panhandle. Given this evolution, southwest/west-central Oklahoma into western north Texas may have some showers and storms around at least through this morning (at the very least some cloud debris). Otherwise, generally hot conditions will continue across the area this afternoon. Areas across the eastern half of the area will be less hot given a slight southwest shift of the low-level thermal ridge. As a result, the Heat Advisory is confined across southwest Oklahoma, far south central/southeast Oklahoma, and western north Texas. There is a chance parts of far southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will reach the Excessive Heat Warning criteria; however, given the uncertainty with the MCV and potential cloud debris in the area, opted not to upgrade at this time. Late this afternoon into the evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across southwest Kansas, southward into the Oklahoma and perhaps Texas panhandles as a subtle wave (most evident at 700 mb) provides synoptic-scale ascent in an uncapped atmosphere. These storms would have a chance to advance east-southeastward into northwest and west-central Oklahoma with a threat for damaging wind gusts and hail. With the nose of the low-level jet farther north, storms would be more likely to maintain their intensity across Kansas with a gradual weakening trend expected in Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Friday: The low-level thermal ridge will shift back to the east, resulting in hotter weather across the area. Much, if not all of the area will likely need a Heat Advisory. Some locations may even reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Thunderstorms will once again be possible across northwest into northern Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours as that area will be on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region with an attendant cold front moving southward across the Midwest. The cold front could be a backdoor cold front where it will move into Oklahoma from the northeast. The front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the highest chance across northern Oklahoma late Saturday into Sunday morning. The amount of convection will likely modulate how far south the cold front advances and the magnitude of the cool air in its wake (i.e., a convectively-reinforced cold front). Currently, the most likely scenario remains highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across northern Oklahoma and upper 90s and low 100s deg F in southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas. Monday-Wednesday: Temperatures will likely rise as the mid-level ridge shifts toward the southeast U.S. with the low-level thermal ridge advecting to the northeast on its western periphery. Probabilistic guidance indicates a >50% chance across the entire area of reaching 100 deg F (air temperature) by Tuesday. Mahale && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 There is a low probability (20 to 30%) of thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening over a portion of northwest and northern Oklahoma. The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms is north of our forecast area. However, there is the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail with storms that develop in the aforementioned areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 101 80 99 / 10 0 0 20 Hobart OK 77 104 81 102 / 20 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 79 104 81 102 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 105 74 98 / 30 0 20 20 Ponca City OK 76 101 78 98 / 20 0 20 30 Durant OK 74 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>023-027- 033>039-044>046-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01