763
FXUS66 KOTX 051143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather conditions are expected to be dry and generally clear the
next seven days. Central Washington will experience a few hours of
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening.
There will be a long duration heatwave today. It is expected to
last through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday: The upper level ridge of high pressure is well
established off the coast of Washington. Overall not much change to
the forecast. Ensembles are honing in on the hottest day being
Wednesday. The grand ensemble mean max temperatures climb from 32
degrees C today to nearly 41 degrees C by Wednesday at Spokane
International AP. By Wednesday, the mean 850 mb temperature forecast
peaks at 30C, a feat only pulled off once since 1995 (29 June 2021).
Our current forecast calls for 104 degrees at KGEG Wednesday. A slow
bleed in temperatures is likely to ensue afterwards, but do not get
your hopes up. There is still a 40% chance of 100 degrees or more
Thursday, 16% Friday, and 21% Saturday of next week. Will have to
keep an eye out for lightning potential and/or any wind events was
models are hinting at a weak shortwave late next week.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today in the Cascade
gaps. With a 500 mb speed max approaches the region later today,
dropping PWATS in the afternoon, increasing 850 mb cold advection,
and increasing Cascade gap surface pressure gradients, high
resolution models indicate a period in the late afternoon where
winds will be 15-20 mph with humidites at 15 to 25%. Any new or
existing fires will have the potential to spread rapidly.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Dry northwest flow aloft will continue to promote mostly
clear skies through Saturday morning with warming temperatures. Smoke
at the Pioneer Fire on the north end of Lake Chelan has become
more active. As the night time inversion sets up, drainage winds
may push smoke down the lake toward Chelan each evening the next
several days. Another fire burning west of the Wenatchee AP has
become active overnight and may contribute to periods of smoke at
this morning and afternoon. Amendments may be necessary as smoke
detection via satellite and cams becomes clear with sunrise. A
weak dry cold front will bring a push of stronger winds down the
east slopes of the Cascades this afternoon and evening. Winds will
increase around 23z and continue through 08z. Gusts up to 30 mph
will be possible at Wenatchee, Chelan, Entiat, and on the
Waterville Plateau. /sb

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. Low confidence for localized visibility
reductions due to smoke. /sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        92  62  92  62  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  87  60  89  61  92  64 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        87  58  89  58  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       97  67  98  66 101  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       89  55  89  55  93  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      85  56  86  56  90  57 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        84  62  84  62  88  65 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     98  65  98  65 102  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      98  68  98  70 101  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           98  64  98  64 102  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday
     for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin
     Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
     evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone
     705)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).

     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Western
     Chelan County.

&&

$$