Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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886 FXUS66 KOTX 280448 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 948 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mild, dry weather likely Friday, followed by heat Saturday. The next system moves through Sunday, with more wind and thunderstorms. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures will continue through the early week. The forecast trends warmer and drier by the middle to the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday: As the trough continues to exit the region, rain shower and thunderstorm activity will decline through the evening and overnight period. Ensembles are bringing ridge pattern for the next couple of days. A few lingering showers over North Idaho are possible through Friday morning. It will be followed by a warming, dry trend through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will generally be light and variable across the region. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. /JDC Saturday night to Thursday: The Inland NW will be in an active pattern, with a series of waves of periodically passing and bringing opportunities for precipitation and some breezy conditions. With those breezy conditions, away from the areas that have the potential for precipitation we will have to watch for any fire weather concerns. Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly above seasonal norms. Saturday night into Sunday the first most notable frontal wave moves in, with a leading warm front lifting in near the start of the period and the cold front and supporting upper trough on its heels around mid-Sunday. Rain chances come to start around the mountain zones Saturday night and expand over a larger portion of northeast Washington and the higher Palouse Sunday afternoon and evening. Embedded t-storms will be also be possible in the afternoon. There is a little bit of shear, around 20-30kts, and modest SBCAPE over northeast WA and north ID at around 100-900 J/kg. So a few isolated stronger t-storms cannot be ruled out, especially toward the northern mountain zones and the northern Panhandle. So if there are any big plans or events you will be attending Sunday afternoon, keep an eye to the sky. Winds will increase through the afternoon across much of the region, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph. The strongest winds are forecast around the Cascades to the Upper Columbia Basin. From Monday to Thursday a series of smaller shortwave disturbances pass through the region. This will keep the risk for periodic showers and isolated embedded t-storms alive each afternoon, but largely over the northeast WA and north ID mountains and near the ID/MT border. Some of the details may change as we get closer. The west-northwest flow will also bring continued breezy conditions, especially Monday and Tuesday afternoon with the strong winds still near the Cascades and central Washington. For fire weather concerns, with breezy conditions each afternoon we will be keeping an eye on regional RH forecasts. As they stand now, the afternoon RH values are above critical values by about 10 or so percentage points. However some outlier guidance show some lower values. Overall, the stronger winds are expected in the afternoon hours between Sunday and Tuesday. Areas to watch closer will be near the lee of the Cascades and central WA, such as near Wenatchee, the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area, for the combination of wind and RH values approaching critical values. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Very isolated showers are moving through N ID. Another wave is moving down from Canada overnight. Latest 00Z CAM models show minor if any precip. TAF sites have periods of mid clouds and/or clear skies. Chance of showers Friday afternoon is along the Canadian border in Idaho. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 48 77 54 82 58 82 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 48 74 53 80 57 78 / 10 0 0 0 10 20 Pullman 47 73 51 81 56 78 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 Lewiston 55 82 59 91 65 88 / 10 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 40 75 46 79 49 79 / 10 10 0 10 10 50 Sandpoint 46 72 50 78 52 76 / 40 10 0 0 20 40 Kellogg 50 71 55 80 60 74 / 10 0 0 0 20 30 Moses Lake 50 82 58 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 54 81 63 83 61 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 50 83 58 83 58 86 / 10 0 0 10 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$