388
FXUS61 KOKX 012201
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
601 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build east
tonight and across the area on Tuesday. The high will then give
way to an approaching frontal system late Wednesday into Thursday.
The frontal system along with a pre-frontal trough will remain
nearby for the start of the weekend, likely moving just offshore
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A lingering shower or two across far eastern LI and SE CT
diminishes early this evening, otherwise expect dry conditions
as a large area of high pressure builds east from the Great
Lakes. Northerly winds will diminish to less than 10 mph.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s across the interior
and Pine Barrens region of LI, to the lower and mid 60s along
the coast. The warmest readings will be across the NYC metro
area. This is a few degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure both aloft and at the surface builds across the
area on Tuesday. Expect mostly sunny skies with subsidence and
high temperatures right around normal for this time of year.
Most locations will top out in the lower to mid 80s, warmest
across the interior and NYC metro. Expect late morning/afternoon
seabreeze development due to a weak flow, with the synoptic
flow becoming light S/SE at less than 10 mph.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, not much change with the
exception of a strengthening southerly flow on Wednesday as the
high builds to the east. Humidity levels will also come up some,
but forecast remains dry with ridging aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes were made and closely followed the NBM. The
main adjustments had to do with PoPs over the weekend to better
account for likely frontal boundary position towards the weekend.

Main Points:

* The humidity climbs late in the week and remain elevated into the
  weekend.

* The pattern shifts to a more unsettled regime as a frontal
  boundary stalls just to the west, and lingers nearby for a good
  portion of the weekend.

A quasi-zonal pattern that will be in place to begin the period
quickly evolves to a developing long wave trough into the Northern
Plains and Midwest which is progged by the global model consensus to
gradually lift northeast and deamplify. This will lead to a SW flow
aloft and a prevailing S to SW flow at the sfc throughout the
period. A warm front is expected to lift north of the area Wednesday
night and this will lead to a warmer and more humid air mass to take
hold into the 4th of July holiday. There remains some question as to
how far east the influence of an approaching frontal boundary can
get to the region later on the 4th. For now have chance to slgt
chance shwr/tstm for the holiday for later in the day and
evening.

For the remainder of the period the main question is how much does
the frontal boundary stall Friday into Saturday, and then does the
frontal system progress east late in the weekend and early next
week. The front may very well linger nearby keeping things somewhat
unsettled from time to time, especially for the afternoon and
evening hours with more daytime heating for shower and t-shower /
storm activity. PWATs should continue to creep up Thursday through
the weekend as the region will be between high pressure in the W and
SW Atlantic and a mean trough to our W and NW. This should result
keeping humidity and the chance of at least diurnally driven shower
activity in place. Temperatures are expected to average a few
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds in. N winds 15G20-25kt will diminish
this early this evening to less than 10 kt by late evening. 5-10 kt
winds turn E then SE tomorrow as high pressure shifts to our east

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. SE gusts up to 20kt late.

Thursday: VFR for much of the day. Then MVFR or lower cond possible
with any late day or nighttime showers/tstms.

Friday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of showers/tstms.

Saturday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of showers/tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds across the area tonight into Tuesday with
sub-SCA conditions. Southerly flow strengthens a bit on Wednesday
with the high departing to the east and a weak frontal system
approaching from the west. Gusts of 15 to 20 kt will be
possible in the NY bight, but lower elsewhere.

Sub advisory conditions will remain in place from Wednesday night
through Saturday for all waters. There will likely be bouts of
marginal small craft conditions at times, especially for portions of
the ocean waters as a southerly flow increases with high pressure
offshore and a frontal boundary likely being to the west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal boundary and pre-frontal trough are likely to approach
late Thursday into Friday, and possibly linger into the weekend. At
this time it remains too early to determine the risk of any
hydrological impacts as the position of the pre-frontal trough and
actual frontal boundary remain in question.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a low rip current risk on Tuesday. There will be a
moderate risk developing for the western ocean beaches on Wednesday,
with a low risk likely continuing for the Suffolk ocean beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...