826
FXUS61 KOKX 030138
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
938 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther
offshore through Wednesday. A weak frontal system will then
approach from the west Wednesday Night into Thursday. Another
frontal system follows into late week, potentially lingering near
the region through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Some areas were running a little warm this evening, so have
lowered minimum temperatures tonight for some of the typical
radiational cooling spots such as the LI Pines.

High cirrus has worked in from the west, in association with a
frontal wave over the Great Lakes, but conditions remain dry
this evening and tonight with surface high pressure in place.
Forecast is on track and previous discussion follows.

Surface high pressure along the coast will gradually work
farther offshore into Wednesday, while the upper ridge builds
east across the area. Outside of some cirrus from the Great
Lakes spilling over the upper ridge, expecting dry conditions,
but a bit milder tonight with low-level warm advection in a
light S-SW flow.

Lows will be generally be in the mid 60s, which is close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper ridge will be over the area Wednesday morning, while the
surface high will be offshore. The eastward trends will continue
through the day with a gradually strengthening southerly flow.
Expect some tightening of the pressure gradient in the afternoon
with the chance for some gusts around 20 mph along the south
shore of western LI. This may work east in the evening, but
dissipating as it does so.

Expect mainly dry conditions with a slight chance of showers
toward daybreak Thursday due to some warm advection on the
backside of the upper ridge. This should be real spotty.

Temperatures during the time will be close to normal with
humidity levels creeping up.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* An unsettled summer pattern takes hold, as a frontal boundary
  stalls just to the west and provides chances for showers and
  thunderstorms

* Humidity levels increase and remain elevated late this week. Heat
  indices may approach or exceed the mid 90s in portions of the
  region Fri/Sat.

While far from a washout, an unsettled pattern develops late this
week with a frontal system lingering off to the north and west
helping to instigate occasional showers and thunderstorms in a warm,
moist air mass. A quasi-zonal pattern that will be in place to begin
the period becomes more amplified, with a longwave trough setting up
over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, and a strengthening
Western Atlantic ridge. As this occurs initially, the frontal
boundary that approaches midweek stalls nearby Thu/Fri, then as a
sfc low moves across the upper Great Lakes, a leading warm front
should approach Friday night and lift north of the region on
Saturday. The attendant cold front slowly approaches from the west
through the weekend, potentially working east sometime early next
week. With the nearby boundary, the forecast carries at least chance
PoP for mainly diurnal convection through the period, though forced
nighttime convection is possible Fri night into Sat AM, and again
Sat night into Sunday.

Temps through the period look fairly consistent, with highs in the
80s to around 90, and lows mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Humidity levels will be highest on Sat, making it the least
comfortable day in terms of heat index values, which should approach
the mid 90s in parts of the region on Friday, and again on Sat. This
may eventually necessitate a heat headline for urban NE NJ.
Generally stayed close to the national blend for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Light onshore SE-SW winds 10kt or less through this evening.
Light and variable winds overnight. Winds pick up S-SW 10-15 kt
Wed afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR for much of the day, then MVFR or lower cond
possible with any late day or nighttime showers/tstms.

Friday through Sunday: MVFR or lower cond possible at times
with chance of showers/tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow strengthens a bit on Wednesday with the high
departing to the east and a weak frontal system approaching from
the west. Marginal SCA gusts possible Wed aft/eve and Thu
aft/eve at entrance to NY Harbor and western Great South Bay
with coastal jet development. Ocean seas may approaching 5 ft in
this area Thursday. Sub advisory conditions for the remainder
of the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A series of fronts is expected to linger near the region late this
week and through the weekend. While widespread hydrological issues
do not appear likely at this time, showers and thunderstorms may
lead to localized flood concerns.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk for rip current development along local
Atlantic facing beaches Wednesday and Thursday with an elevated
southerly flow and surf between 2 and 4 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...