423
FXUS64 KOHX 030559
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

What a difference 24 hours makes. Temperatures and dew points at
this time yesterday were about 15 degrees cooler than right now.
It`s pretty warm and muggy out there still and it`s going to be
like this for at least the next few days as upper ridging covers
the southeast US. If there`s any good news, rain chances will
creep back into the forecast tomorrow afternoon and while not
everyone will see rain, some could get relief from the blistering
heat, at least for a little while. The Heat Advisory for tomorrow
continues to be in effect from noon until 7 pm, so please take the
necessary precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from
heat illness.

As far as the rain chances, like I said, they`re pretty low.
However, those that see storms will experience heavy rain and
lightning. Keep in mind, summertime storms always carry the risk
of strong to severe winds (40-60 mph), so pay attention to the
skies if you have outdoor plans. The safe play: just seek shelter
if storms are near.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Started off today much cooler than we`ve been experiencing lately.
Unfortunately, the uncomfortable heat and high humidity will be
making a return later today, and will be sticking with us through
Friday. An upper level ridge has already started building in over
the southeast and return flow will bring ample moisture back into in
the area. The warmer air temps combined with the higher dew point
temps will send heat index values into the 105+ range Wednesday.
With that, a heat advisory will be in effect during the day
tomorrow from 1pm-7pm. A wave passing to our north will bring the
chance for a few scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
Models show instability values reaching into the 1500 J/kg range,
so a few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. PWAT
values will be near 2", so very heavy rain will be likely with
any thunderstorms that develop. As we`ve recently seen, some
localized flash flooding could occur under these storms. On the
plus side, mid-level lapse rates are quite low with values near
5.5 C/km. Shear is also on the lower side with values near 15 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

As we move into the 4th of July, the intense heat and high humidity
will once again likely warrant another heat advisory. Lower heights
resulting from a strong upper-level low over the midwest will scoot
over Tennessee during the day Thursday, bringing an increased and
more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon. This could help keep temperatures a bit cooler for
some, thus we`re holding off on issuing any heat products for now.
SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the majority of the area
Thursday. Instability looks greater and there will be better
forcing with the shortwave passing aloft over our north, so a few
strong to potentially severe storms will again be possible. Models
continue to show coverage greatly decreasing by Thursday night,
so hopefully that continues to be the trend as not to be a damper
on any Independence Day plans.

As we get into Friday, it`s likely going to be a rainy and overcast
day for the most part as a cold front pushes through the area. I use
the term cold front loosely as temperatures will remain near or at
90 degrees this weekend. We will have a brief drying out period
Saturday afternoon through Sunday before rain chances return Monday
and Tuesday. The upper-air pattern to start the week features a
trough moving in from the Great Plains that will keep rain chances
in the forecast each day to start the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Winds are expected to remain light and mostly out of the south
this morning, then increase to around 10 knots during the daytime
hours today. While a few stray showers may develop this
afternoon, likelihood of TAF sites being impacted is very low, so
left out any mention of precip. VFR conditions expected to prevail
at all sites throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      97  78  96  77 /  20  20  20  50
Clarksville    95  76  92  76 /  30  40  30  50
Crossville     89  70  89  71 /  10  10  20  40
Columbia       97  76  96  75 /  10  10  20  40
Cookeville     91  74  90  73 /  10  20  20  40
Jamestown      90  72  89  71 /  10  20  20  40
Lawrenceburg   95  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
Murfreesboro   97  76  97  75 /  10  10  20  40
Waverly        96  76  94  74 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-
Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Whitehead