Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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164 FXUS64 KOHX 281056 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 556 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Warm and quiet night across middle TN this morning. Temperatures are generally in the 70s and skies are mostly clear. Today we will be under the influence of a suppressed upper ridge across the deep and mid south. Mostly downward motion is indicated by afternoon and despite some weak favorable cape to cap ratios, not expecting any notable convection. On Saturday this will start to change a bit as the ridge gets further suppressed. More in the way of favorable lift could enter our northern areas late in the day as a front starts to move our way from the north. Pops will be included and continue into Sunday. At that time, organization and instability look better and we could see some strong to severe storms. Helicity is very weak and MLL rates are barely 6C so not expecting any tornadic or hail threats. However, straightline wind damage will be possible. Right now, we are not outlooked but that will probably change. The marginal already is located southward through KY for the period through 12Z Saturday. Otw, most areas will average around a half inch of rainfall through Sunday, maybe three quarters of an inch. Update....a marginal has been issued for our northern third for what looks like Saturday afternoon/eve. When the day3 gets updated it will probably include more of our area in a marginal. For the near term temps, it`s going to heat up pretty good beginning today. Highs in the 90s can be expected, near 90 on Sunday when the added clouds and more widespread convection arrives. Overnight lows in the mid 70s for much of the area west of the Plateau. We will get a little closer to advisory criteria on Saturday. Will review the apparent temps carefully to see where we stand. Todays max HI values look like 98F to 104F west of the Plat. Saturday will be a little warmer though so stand by for a potential heat advisory, later, for Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 In the extended forecast, Monday looks as though it will be the choice pick day of the week. At that time, the boundary which brought us the active Sunday weather, will move to our south with cooler high pressure in charge to our north. The thickness regime also suggest a little bit of thermal troughing at hand. This wont last however, as a suppressed w-e upper ridge returns. Again though, convection chances will follow by weeks end as the ridge quickly weakens and westerlies return. For the extended temps, I had mentioned that Monday may be the choice pick day of the period. It does look like highs only in the mid 80s to upper 80s or so. Dewpoints will be noticeably lower as well so it looks like a day to enjoy. However, by mid week, we will be back up into the mid 90s. Overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night will be down into the lower to mid 60s. But, look for 70s by mid week. Nothing really brewing in the Caribbean or the western Atlantic. A weak little wave off the Yucatan should remain a non-player. Over in the eastern Atlantic, a wave to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands stands a good chance of tropical development. It`s a good week or so before any north American impact could occur and the long range mods keep it south, anyhow. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions thru 29/12Z. Isolated shwrs/tstms afternoon hours possible Cumberland Plateau Region, but not enough confidence in development to mention impacting/vcnty either. Sfc high pressure apex centered across Great Lakes Region will shift E to New England coastline by 29/12Z. Light sfc winds shifting to prevailing S/light after 28/14Z with initial SKC conditions becoming BKN CI with sct CU/AC also expected SRB/CSV. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 30 50 Clarksville 92 75 93 75 / 10 0 40 50 Crossville 89 70 86 70 / 20 10 40 50 Columbia 94 74 95 74 / 10 0 30 40 Cookeville 90 72 88 72 / 10 10 40 50 Jamestown 89 72 87 71 / 20 10 40 50 Lawrenceburg 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 30 40 Murfreesboro 94 74 94 75 / 10 10 30 50 Waverly 91 74 94 74 / 10 0 30 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....JB Wright