520
FXUS65 KMSO 011754
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1154 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms will persist today across
western Montana and Lemhi County. Heavy rain, lightning, small
hail and gusty winds will be the main threats. Going to the Sun
road at Logan Pass has a 20% chance for heavy rain with
thunderstorms between 5 and 7 pm this evening. There is a 20 to
30% chance that a few thunderstorms could produce rain-rates over
0.30" per hour in Lemhi County. On Tuesday, the better chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across northern Lincoln and
Flathead counties including Glacier National Park. On Wednesday,
an atmospheric wave will bring a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across western Montana. West-northwest gusts of
15-25 mph are expected in valley areas both Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Independence Day, Thursday, the highest chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be over the Divide from Glacier National Park
south to the Butte region. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s
across western Montana and lower 90s in the lower valleys of
north-central Idaho.

A warmer pattern is anticipated to develop from Friday into the
weekend. There is a moderate heat risk for the lower elevations of
Idaho. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to
heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. There is a 75% chance that high temperatures could hit
100 degrees on Friday in the Snake River valley, and 30 to 40%
chance from Orofino and points west. Those probabilities increase
by the weekend for the lower valleys of north-central Idaho.
Missoula has not reached 90 degrees yet, and the probabilities for
that occurring rises to 75% by Saturday and Sunday (July 5 and 6).


&&

.AVIATION...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
across the Northern Rockies region today. Showers and storms are
possible through 02/0300z (9 pm MDT), with the highest
probabilities (40-60%) for thunderstorms across northwest Montana,
southwest Montana, and Lemhi County, Idaho. West-northwest winds
will pick up this afternoon and evening, with gusts reaching 20-25
knots across western Montana.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$