129
FXUS64 KMRX 021739
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
139 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Forecast on track with no big updates. Only minor tweaks to hourly
temps, dewpoints, and sky grids to match up with latest obs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

1. Tad warmer today area wide, and dry weather to persist.

Discussion:

Regional satellite shows scattered clouds in the region, HREF
depicts scattered high clouds and the regular afternoon low cumulus
field today. The upper level ridge will begin to build back in over
our area, and winds will switch back to a up valley southwesterly
flow regime. With the strong warm air aloft acting to suppress any
vertical air movement, no convection is expected today either.
Should be a slightly warmer, slightly muggier day than yesterday
was, but overall still pretty nice. Tonight will feature still
mostly clear skies, light winds under the ridge, and dry
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions Wednesday, with chances of showers and storms in
the forecast for the remainder of the period with the highest
chances expected Friday into Saturday.

2. Hot conditions expected to continue through the extended,
humidity returns late week.

Discussion:

We start the period under the upper ridge with surface high pressure
extending into our area from the northeast. Wednesday will be
another dry day, with temperatures a bit above normal.

The upper ridge flattens out Independence Day, and southwesterly
flow brings increasing moisture.  However, convective energy looks
unimpressive so while some mainly diurnally driven convection is
expected to develop, it should be mainly isolated to scattered in
nature overall. With the increase in humidity and afternoon high
temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range across much of the valley,
heat index values will likely climb to near or slightly above 100 in
many valley locations so following good heat safety practices will
be important for those spending time outdoors for the holiday.

An upper trough will swing across the Great Lakes region Friday and
Saturday, and a surface cold front will approach our area Friday and
move through Saturday.  We will see an increase in showers and
thunderstorms ahead of and near the front Friday into Saturday.
Friday will continue to be quite hot with heat index values in the
upper 90s and lower 100s in many valley locations.

The front looks likely to stall just to our south Sunday into
Monday. Somewhat drier air will filter into our area, but there
still may be a few isolated to scattered showers and storms around
each day.  High temperatures will be around to slightly above
seasonal normals both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions through the period at all sites. CHA will see
southerly gusts up to 20kts through this evening. Otherwise,
light southerly winds. Expect light southwesterly winds at TYS and
southeasterly at TRI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  93  76  94 /   0  10   0  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  91  73  93 /   0   0   0  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  91  74  93 /   0   0  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  90  68  91 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...