092
FXUS64 KMRX 030221
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1021 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Forecast remains on track as remnant clouds from this afternoon cu
field remain most prominent across northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia. These will continue to dissipate over the next
few hours, with mostly clear skies leading to overnight lows
ranging from the low 70s to a cool low 60s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry and warmer on Wednesday.

2. Heat Index around 100 degrees across the central and southern TN
Valley.

Discussion:

Quiet tonight. Mostly dry and warmer tomorrow with ridging centered
to our south. The majority of the area will be dry. However, some of
the HI-Res models and NBM show a few isolated showers and storms
tomorrow afternoon. Not sold on this idea due to some mid-level
capping showing up in NAM soundings. Did leave some slight chance
POPs in place across southwest NC but took them out elsewhere.

Otherwise, warmer tomorrow with temps in the lower 90s for most
areas. Afternoon Heat Index will be around 100 degrees for the
central and southern TN Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

1. Chances for showers and storms during the long term period, with
the highest chances expected Friday into Saturday.

2. Hot and humid will stick around until the end of the week with
slight improvement over the weekend into next week.

Discussion:

Besides the very early parts of the extended forecast, good news as
far as chances for showers and thunderstorms will return for the
rest of the period into next week. Return flow currently setting up
across the forecast area will increase and persist through the end
of the week, providing an increase in atmospheric moisture and heat
index values. Thursday and Friday will feel like the hottest days,
with heat index values for parts of the valley in the upper 90s to
low 100s. The ridge aloft will become suppressed some as shortwave
energy crosses the top of the ridge Thursday which will help spark
some activity. As of this morning, SPC has placed western portions
of our CWA in a MRGL risk for severe weather Thursday. Will see how
this plays out, but CAPE values hardly go above 1000 J/kg over the
plateau and mountainous areas.

The best chances for numerous coverage of showers and storms
resulting in at least some measurable precipitation (up to a half to
near three quarters of an inch) will be Friday into Saturday as a
trough crosses over the Great Lakes region sending a cold front our
way. Temperatures will be much improved Saturday onward. Drier air
won`t be replacing the moisture, as it is expected to persist even
with temperatures falling a couple of degrees. As a result, heat
index values will stay below 100. Height falls are in the forecast
the early part of next week as a trough appears to set up across the
middle part of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions and light winds generally 10kts or less are expected
at all sites for the 00Z TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  94  77  96 /   0  10  10  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  94  75  94 /   0  10  10  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  93  74  93 /   0  10  10  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  91  70  91 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...KRS