Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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368 FXUS64 KMRX 282328 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 728 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday. 2. Above normal temperatures and muggy. Discussion: Low level moisture will continue to overspread the area. This afternoon dewpoints were in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Little change expected overnight and temperatures will slowly drop to the mid and lower 70s by sunrise. With the soupy conditions, a few more showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Saturday especially over the eastern mountain terrain including southwest North Carolina. The typical summer-time scattered nature of these storms will have the capability of producing locally heavy rainfall and some areas will experience no rain. Stay patient because those that are dry on Saturday may get some relief Saturday night into Sunday. Daytime temperatures will be hot and heat index values will be close to 100 degrees in the extreme southern Tennessee Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Key Messages: 1. Showers and storms through Sunday. 2. Drying out and warming up Monday through midweek. 3. Ridge breaks down toward the end of the period, giving us more chances for showers and storms. Discussion: A few isolated to scattered showers and storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period. Showers and storms should wane in intensity as we lose our daytime heating. However, a few lingering showers and storms can be expected through the night due to zonal flow just ahead of an approaching cold front and weak divergence aloft. Showers and storms will increase in coverage on Sunday with the frontal passage. Peak coverage will occur during the afternoon hours, when heating is maximized. With weak 0-6km (around 25kts) shear in place, a few strong storms are possible. However, storm threat is conditional on how much instability can develop. The amount of instability is uncertain due to the potential for lingering cloud cover associated with any ongoing showers/storms Sunday morning. Overall, the probability of severe weather is very low. This aligns with the SPC day 3 marginal risk in place. We dry out on Monday behind the cold front. Monday will be the nicest day of the long term with near normal temps and lower dewpoints. Ridging remains in place through Tuesday but with temps back into the lower 90s. The ridge begins to flatten on Wednesday which means slight chance to chance POPs for diurnal showers and storms are back in the forecast. The ridge becomes further suppressed and pushes deeper to the south on Thursday. This is due to an incoming, broad, long wave trough from out of the northwest. This feature will have an associated cold front but it`s too early for details on timing. In general though, with the trough and cold front approaching, increased POPs are expected on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 726 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered to broken VFR cigs can be expected through the night and most of tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop tomorrow afternoon, so a PROB30 will be mentioned at all sites for this possibility. Winds will remain under 10 kt through this period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 76 92 76 / 20 20 60 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 75 91 75 / 20 10 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 92 73 91 74 / 20 10 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 71 91 72 / 20 10 60 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...DGS