024
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed July 03 2024

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2024

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE model solutions are in good agreement and consistent
with a high amplitude pattern over the North Pacific and western North America
during the 6-10 day period. From west to east, the 500-hPa longwave pattern
includes a ridge over the western Aleutians, troughing across Mainland Alaska,
and a ridge over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The stable and high
amplitude trough/ridge pattern favors below-normal temperatures throughout much
of Alaska and above-normal temperatures for the western CONUS. A broad area
with greater than an 80 percent chance for above-normal temperatures across the
interior West is supported by the reforecast tools. An amplified 500-hPa trough
early in this period supports increased below-normal temperature probabilities
across the central Great Plains and much of the Mississippi Valley. Farther
south across the southern Great Plains and western Gulf Coast, the expectation
of enhanced rainfall and cloudiness leads to near normal or a slight tilt
towards below-normal temperatures. Above-normal temperatures are more likely
closer to the East Coast due to continued southerly surface flow.

As of 11am EDT on July 3, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that
Hurricane Beryl will cross the Yucatan Peninsula later this week and reemerge
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. On day 6, its remnant low is expected to
be either across northeastern Mexico, the lower Rio Grande Valley, or farther
north across central Texas. As the remnant low dissipates around day 7, another
tropical wave or tropical cyclone (TC) could be approaching the western Gulf
Coast. The combination of the remnant low, associated with Beryl, and the
following tropical wave or TC support enhanced above-normal precipitation
probabilities across the western Gulf Coast, Rio Grande Valley, and southern
Great Plains. The increased chances of above-normal precipitation probabilities
across the eastern CONUS are related to the amplified trough initially over the
Mississippi Valley. These above-normal precipitation probabilities are further
enhanced for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a stationary front provides a
focus for diurnal convection. Precipitation tools trended wetter today across
the Southwest as the 500-hPa ridge axis lifts northward to the Four Corners
region. A highly amplified ridge favors below-normal precipitation for much of
the northern half of the western CONUS along with the northern to central Great
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Troughing across Alaska favors increased
above-normal precipitation probabilities across the state.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, near to above-normal temperatures are favored for
Hawaii. Due to weak and conflicting signals among the precipitation tools, near
normal precipitation is forecast.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Forecast confidence: Above
average, 4 out of 5, due to a high amplitude longwave pattern over Alaska and
the western CONUS and good agreement among the temperature and precipitation
tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2024

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE remain consistent that the high amplitude ridge over
the western CONUS expands eastward by the beginning of week-2. The manual
500-hPa height blend depicts +30 meter anomaly departures along and north of
the 40th parallel, which is substantial for mid-July. 500-hPa height anomalies
increase to more than 60 meters across the far northern CONUS. This expansive
and anomalous 500-hPa ridge favors above-normal temperatures for a majority of
the lower 48 states. However, near normal or a slight lean towards below-normal
temperatures is forecast across much of the Ozarks region, southern Great
Plains, and Rio Grande Valley as enhanced rainfall and cloudiness could linger
through early week-2. A persistent trough favors a continuation of
cooler-than-normal temperatures across Alaska.

The GEFS and ECMWF reforecasts along with the analog tool derived from manual
500-hPa blend are in good agreement for the week-2 precipitation outlook. The
remnant low, associated with Beryl, is expected to dissipate by day 8, but the
following tropical wave or TC may track inland to the south-central CONUS which
maintains increased above-normal precipitation probabilities for this region.
However, the uncalibrated GEFS is much drier than the ECMWF model output. A
weakness in the subtropical ridge and expectation for frequent diurnal
convection throughout week-2 slightly elevate above-normal precipitation
probabilities across much of the eastern CONUS along with the eastern half of
the Corn Belt. Model solutions depict a 500-hPa ridge axis over the Four
Corners which is a favorable location for an enhanced Monsoon. Precipitation
tools have trended wetter today across the Great Basin and central Rockies as
this enhanced Monsoon moisture is expected to spread northward. Anomalous
mid-level ridging favors below-normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest
east to the northern to central Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.
Cyclonic flow and below-normal 500-hPa heights support above-normal
precipitation probabilities throughout Alaska.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, near to above-normal temperatures are favored for
Hawaii. Due to weak and conflicting signals among the precipitation tools, near
normal precipitation is forecast.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Forecast confidence: Above
average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on the evolving longwave
pattern and good agreement between the dynamical and statistical tools.

FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 18.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20050629 - 20040615 - 20060619 - 20030625 - 19520715


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20050628 - 20000622 - 20060619 - 20040612 - 19530618


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 09 - 13 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 11 - 17 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$