000
FXUS63 KMPX 021046
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
546 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain possible this afternoon, best chances
  for heavy rain and thunderstorms from south central MN to
  western WI.

- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for the 4th
  of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Today and Tonight...Continued warm air and moist air advection
into the Upper Midwest will continue to provide for additional
rain chances. NAEFS suggests that precipitable water values over
1.75" remain possible. These values are well into the 99th
percentile, so the environment is primed for heavy rain. So far
for this first round of rain the heaviest rain has remained to
the south over Iowa into parts of southeast Minnesota. This
activity took up much of the moisture present such that the QPF
farther north was not as high as expected. This first round of
rain, early this morning, was largely tied to the system over
Canada. Another system is expected to move through today more
so over Iowa. This will keep southern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin as the main areas of interest. Forecast model
soundings in this area of interest show saturated soundings with
high precipitable water values, but limited instability. Should
still be enough for some thunderstorms to form, but would be
hard to see much chance for strong to severe storms. So this
looks to be more of a heavy rain risk than anything else.

Wednesday...High pressure returns, briefly, on Wednesday with a
warmer and sunnier day expected. This should allow for high
temperatures to reach into the lower to mid 80s. A few ensemble
members do provide a chance for some light rain Wednesday
afternoon, so kept some low PoPs in the forecast.

Thursday and Friday...Unfortunately it does continue to look
like a trough will move into the Upper Midwest on Thursday for
the holiday. This forcing is well agreed upon between the main
deterministic models. Looking towards to the ensembles, the
variance here is more tied to timing rather than rain occurring
or not. Start times vary between members, but overall it is the
afternoon of July 4th into the following morning that has the
most members in agreement. On the severe front the timing will
be important. If we avoid much early day rain than we could
build more instability and have a greater severe risk. This
uncertainty is why SPC has placed us in a marginal risk for
Thursday. The surface low associated with this rain will move
into the Great Lakes on Friday providing for more rain chances
on Friday

The Weekend... Our active pattern continues into the weekend
with more rain chances late Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave
moves in from Canada. A lot more spread of course looking this
far out, so details remain uncertain. What is clear however is
that you will have to look past this weekend for a prolonged dry
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Rain has mostly moved off to the east of our WI terminals this
morning, but MVFR/IFR ceilings will linger through most of the
morning at central MN terminals & well into the afternoon at WI
terminals. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this
afternoon but are largely expected to remain across far-southeast
Minnesota & southwest Wisconsin. EAU has the most likely chance
to see rain & a few thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening,
while a few scattered rain showers are possible elsewhere
across MN & WI. Ceilings should remain VFR late this afternoon &
evening, with scattering out expected by late tonight & clear
skies into tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be southerly
early this morning with a few gusts to 20 kts. Winds will become
more southwesterly through the morning & afternoon with speeds
around 10 kts. Speeds drop below 5 kts after sunset.

KMSP...MVFR conditions are expected shortly after the start of
the period, but it is tough to nail down an exact time. Ceilings
are expected to remain below the 017 threshold through the
morning with a chance they drip to IFR mid-morning. Improvement
will begin by early afternoon with VFR conditions likely by 2-3
PM. Scattered showers could impact the terminal late this
afternoon, but no thunder is expected & only minor impacts to
ceilings/visibility.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR. Wind W 10G20 kts.
THU...MVFR/IFR SHRA & TSRA.Wind SE 5-10 kts
FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind NE 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA