551
FXUS63 KMPX 022020
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
320 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain ongoing this afternoon, best chances
  for heavy rain and thunderstorms from south central MN to
  western WI.

- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for the 4th
  of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow... Pockets of light showers are making their
way into western Minnesota, while some heavier showers/storms are
tracking into portions of southern Minnesota. Satellite imagery
shows widespread low level stratus still hanging around across much
of Wisconsin this afternoon, with some cooler cloud tops starting to
pop up along the Iowa/Minnesota border associated with the
convection. Any stronger storms should stay south into Iowa where
the greatest instability is located, given there has been less
persistent cloud cover there. These showers will continue into the
evening, spreading further north and east over time. As this system
exits, ridging will move in, allowing for a really solid summer day
tomorrow with temperatures in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Thursday and Friday... This is looking more and more likely to be an
active period as model agreement argues for rain chances starting
Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday evening. There
could be multiple periods of rain as the upper level trough
gradually makes its way east through the Upper Midwest, resulting in
a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for localized heavy rain and
flooding concerns. The current forecast calls for widespread
0.5-1" of rain, with up to 2+" possible for areas across west-
central and southern Minnesota. Given the recent stretch of
above normal rainfall, there is a lower threshold for flooding
within this area. Any rain that falls in the morning would be
more showery, while the afternoon/evening could bring heavy
showers and storms. The severity of any storms that develop
would be largely dependent on how the morning rain pans out.
More persistent and drawn out rain would favor less instability
for PM storms, while more off-and-on morning showers with a peek
of sunshine in between would favor more instability for
thunderstorm development later in the day. Overall, the severe
threat is marginal (level 1 out of 5), but given the amount of
outdoor events taking place during the holiday, even just some
general thunder bears watching out for.

The Weekend... The active weather could continue into the weekend as
a shortwave looks to slide down from Canada. Timing on this is still
uncertain, but is currently favored to move into northwestern
Minnesota by late Saturday and then track southeast into Sunday
morning. Amounts look to be on the lighter side, but could again
impact any outdoor events taking place during this busy weekend.
Temperatures will stay around average for this time of year, ranging
from the low 60s for lows to low 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The stratus deck is having a hard time eroding eastward
underneath filling-in high cirrus/cirrostratus clouds. The
lower ceilings are slightly above and below 1000ft, so
straddling the MVFR/IFR threshold. Ceilings will steadily rise
through this afternoon, allowing the sites under the stratus
deck to increase over the IFR level, while western MN sites have
broken away from the low stratus already and will remain,, in a
prevailing sense, within VFR. There is a chance of SHRA in
southern-eastern MN through western WI later this afternoon into
early this evening, so much so that precip mention in the TAFs
are able to be upped to TEMPOs for that timeframe. Not expecting
anything prolonged, heavy or strong, but enough that any
rainfall could be enough to drop conditions to MVFR late this
afternoon. Conditions will improve this evening through midday
tomorrow to solid VFR. Winds will generally remain 10kts or
less, but possibly a little breezier in western MN due to better
mixing with the clearing. Winds will slowly veer to SW and W
overnight through Wednesday.

KMSP...Ceiling have risen to MVFR levels, thus making IFR
ceilings no longer expected but ceilings will not rise over
2000ft until a few hours into the 02/18z TAF. Mid-level ceilings
will then prevail through this evening, but there is still the
potential for having a round or intermittent RA/TSRA late this
afternoon into this evening. Not looking for anything
strong/severe but could be just enough to nudge conditions into
MVFR through the evening push. Conditions will continue to
improve through the evening and overnight, remaining at VFR
through midday Wednesday. Winds will turn to 200-230 during the
evening push but with speeds under 10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind NE 10G20 kts.
SAT...Chance MVFR/SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC