854
FXUS63 KMPX 291837
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
137 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry weather continues through tomorrow before rain chances
  return through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Cloud cover has filled in from the northwest behind a cold front
early this afternoon. A few scattered sprinkles have managed to find
their way down to the surface across eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin, but overall we will remain dry through the weekend.
Strong CAA has kept temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s, which is
some 10-15 degrees below normal. Gusty northwest winds are expected
through early this evening before dying down as a high approaches
from the west. This will also work to clear out our cloud cover
overnight, leading to an even cooler late June night. Lows in the
mid 40s to low 50s are expected by Sunday morning with another cool
and dry day on tap to end what has otherwise been a very active
month for rainfall and river flooding. A preliminary look back at
June`s precip shows all three of our climate sites (MSP/STC/EAU)
will end well above normal by some 2.7" to nearly 3". Despite this,
none of our sites came close to cracking a top 10 wettest June.
Additionally, these sites still have yet to see 90 degrees this
year, which on average occurs during the first two weeks of this
month.

As we start July, our brief break in the precip looks to come
to an end as we once again find ourselves caught in a parade of
shortwaves moving across the Upper Midwest. Southerly flow ramps
up through the day Monday, with moisture really increasing by
Monday night. A strong LLJ kicks in Monday evening, helping to
reinforce the heavy rainfall threat overnight into Tuesday.
Monday afternoon may bring some strong to severe storms to far
western Minnesota, but there are uncertainties with how much
instability will be available. There will be no shortage of
shear, especially once that 850mb gets going. In any case, this
will likely end up being more of a rain threat for our area than
a severe threat. Rain will continue into Tuesday with a wide
swath of 1-1.5"+ of QPF across central and southern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin by Tuesday evening.

Wednesday will be quiet before our next system arrives in time for
the Independence Day holiday. A deep trough looks to swing through
the Dakotas with a surface low developing across the central CONUS
and lifting northward. Confidence has increased in widespread
rainfall during this timeframe, and PoPs/QPF reflect this. As
with any system at this time range, there are still some
uncertainties with exact timing and amounts, but it is seeming
more likely that the 4th will be wet. Looking ahead to the end
of next week into the following weekend, there is a decent
amount of model spread in the evolution of the Thursday trough,
but it does appear that temperatures will remain on the slightly
cooler side of normal with continued low chances for additional
precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Until sunset, we`ll maintain northwest winds at their current
speed, with cigs continuing to slowly rise, with mainly VFR
cigs expected by 21z. An isolated shower or two is possible east
of MSP, but coverage is expected to be low enough to preclude a
mention of precip at any terminal. For fog potential tonight,
we`ll have the clear skies and calm winds, but incoming airmass
looks to be dry enough to prevent fog from forming. The lone
exception being along the river there at EAU.

KMSP...Given the MN River now resembles a lake, there could be
some fog down in the valley Sunday morning, but this is not
expected to impact MSP. We will see a wind shift Sunday morning
from the north over to the southeast, but speeds will be 5 kts
or less while this is happening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA day, MVFR/TSRA likely overnight. Wind
      SE 15G25 kts.
TUE...MVFR. Chance MVFR SHRA/TSRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR Wind WSW 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...MPG