Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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551 FXUS63 KMPX 022020 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 320 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain ongoing this afternoon, best chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms from south central MN to western WI. - Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for the 4th of July. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Pockets of light showers are making their way into western Minnesota, while some heavier showers/storms are tracking into portions of southern Minnesota. Satellite imagery shows widespread low level stratus still hanging around across much of Wisconsin this afternoon, with some cooler cloud tops starting to pop up along the Iowa/Minnesota border associated with the convection. Any stronger storms should stay south into Iowa where the greatest instability is located, given there has been less persistent cloud cover there. These showers will continue into the evening, spreading further north and east over time. As this system exits, ridging will move in, allowing for a really solid summer day tomorrow with temperatures in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies. Thursday and Friday... This is looking more and more likely to be an active period as model agreement argues for rain chances starting Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday evening. There could be multiple periods of rain as the upper level trough gradually makes its way east through the Upper Midwest, resulting in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for localized heavy rain and flooding concerns. The current forecast calls for widespread 0.5-1" of rain, with up to 2+" possible for areas across west- central and southern Minnesota. Given the recent stretch of above normal rainfall, there is a lower threshold for flooding within this area. Any rain that falls in the morning would be more showery, while the afternoon/evening could bring heavy showers and storms. The severity of any storms that develop would be largely dependent on how the morning rain pans out. More persistent and drawn out rain would favor less instability for PM storms, while more off-and-on morning showers with a peek of sunshine in between would favor more instability for thunderstorm development later in the day. Overall, the severe threat is marginal (level 1 out of 5), but given the amount of outdoor events taking place during the holiday, even just some general thunder bears watching out for. The Weekend... The active weather could continue into the weekend as a shortwave looks to slide down from Canada. Timing on this is still uncertain, but is currently favored to move into northwestern Minnesota by late Saturday and then track southeast into Sunday morning. Amounts look to be on the lighter side, but could again impact any outdoor events taking place during this busy weekend. Temperatures will stay around average for this time of year, ranging from the low 60s for lows to low 80s for highs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The stratus deck is having a hard time eroding eastward underneath filling-in high cirrus/cirrostratus clouds. The lower ceilings are slightly above and below 1000ft, so straddling the MVFR/IFR threshold. Ceilings will steadily rise through this afternoon, allowing the sites under the stratus deck to increase over the IFR level, while western MN sites have broken away from the low stratus already and will remain,, in a prevailing sense, within VFR. There is a chance of SHRA in southern-eastern MN through western WI later this afternoon into early this evening, so much so that precip mention in the TAFs are able to be upped to TEMPOs for that timeframe. Not expecting anything prolonged, heavy or strong, but enough that any rainfall could be enough to drop conditions to MVFR late this afternoon. Conditions will improve this evening through midday tomorrow to solid VFR. Winds will generally remain 10kts or less, but possibly a little breezier in western MN due to better mixing with the clearing. Winds will slowly veer to SW and W overnight through Wednesday. KMSP...Ceiling have risen to MVFR levels, thus making IFR ceilings no longer expected but ceilings will not rise over 2000ft until a few hours into the 02/18z TAF. Mid-level ceilings will then prevail through this evening, but there is still the potential for having a round or intermittent RA/TSRA late this afternoon into this evening. Not looking for anything strong/severe but could be just enough to nudge conditions into MVFR through the evening push. Conditions will continue to improve through the evening and overnight, remaining at VFR through midday Wednesday. Winds will turn to 200-230 during the evening push but with speeds under 10kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind NE 10G20 kts. SAT...Chance MVFR/SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...JPC