797
FXUS64 KMOB 020504
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours.
Calm to light and variable winds into Tuesday morning become
southeasterly to southerly near 10 knots Tuesday afternoon. A few
afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast,
so added VCTS starting around 02/19z. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through
this evening. This will maintain a generally northerly flow
pattern aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around
this ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will
continue to result in light, variable winds. A weak frontal
boundary has been sinking toward the coast this afternoon
resulting in slight rain chances near the coast. A heat advisory
remains in effect today through 7PM for heat index values around
110 for all but the far northwestern counties. The frontal
boundary lifts back north on Tuesday returning higher rain chances
to inland areas. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low to mid
90s in the eastern third of the CWA and mid to upper 90s in the
western 2/3 approaching 100 in some locations on the western
border. Another heat advisory is likely for western areas on
Tuesday. [Schlotz/LIX]

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The overall weather pattern remains rather persistent. Looking
aloft, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Tennessee River
Valley at the start of the period will gradually shift east
through the week, reaching the western Atlantic by Sunday. At the
surface, high pressure centered over the area, it is safe to
assume that the typical summertime land/seabreeze circulation will
likely be the driving force each day. This will help to initiate
isolated to scattered showers and storms each morning along our
coastal counties and our local marine zones. As the seabreeze
marches inland during the afternoon, scattered pulse- type
thunderstorms can be expected each day (PoPs generally around 30
to 50 percent). As is the case with this typical summertime
convection, although severe storms are generally not expected,
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be
possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop.
Otherwise, it will be hot thanks to the close proximity of the
ridge. Given slight movement of the high pressure through the
period, apparent temperatures will hover around the 108 degree
threshold and a Heat Advisory will be likely for some portion of
the area each day. Lows will not provide much relief, further
exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area...
temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper
70s, with low 80s along the coast. So, long story short, The heat
and humidity will persist through the period. Daily heat indices
will generally peak in the 105-110F range. Accordingly, heat
advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the
area through much of the next week. The one exception may be
Wednesday with temperatures a couple of degrees lower owing to a
slightly stronger southerly, onshore flow on the western side of
the retreating surface high.

An upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southeast
U.S. during the second half of the week. At the surface, high
pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast with weak ridging
extend southwestward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This
pattern will keep organized disturbances, both tropical waves and
mid- latitude shortwave troughs, from entering our domain.
However, diurnally-driven showers and storms can still be expected
each day with convection sea/landbreeze circulations providing a
local focus for convection. Undercut the NBM PoPs, especially for
Wednesday and Thursday as 60-70 percent coverage in the afternoon
seemed a bit high with the absence of any deeper lift underneath
the upper ridge.

The upper ridge starts to break down late this weekend into early
next week as a longwave trough approaches from the central CONUS.
While the area will remain well south of any synoptic cold front
that is associated with this system, mid-level height falls and
weak disturbances rotating around the base of the trough will aid
in thunderstorm development late in the period.

A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for Wednesday and the
4th of July holiday, however, as the previous shift mentioned, the
rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into
the post- holiday weekend. This will likely be a result of long
period swell reaching our local beaches in association with Beryl
as it enters the Bay of Campeche by the weekend. We will monitor
this potential, as well as possible increases in surf and wave
run-up issues, over the coming days. [13; Schlotz, Klein/LIX]

MARINE...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. [13; Schlotz/LIX]

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  90  75  92  76  95  76  95 /  20  50  10  40  10  40  20  40
Pensacola   79  89  77  91  78  92  79  94 /  20  50  10  50  10  40  20  50
Destin      80  89  80  91  79  92  80  92 /  40  40  10  40  10  40  10  40
Evergreen   74  92  73  94  74  96  74  95 /  20  60  10  50  10  50  20  50
Waynesboro  74  93  73  95  74  97  74  96 /  10  50   0  40  10  40  20  50
Camden      74  92  73  94  74  95  74  95 /  10  40  10  40  10  50  20  50
Crestview   74  91  73  94  74  96  75  97 /  30  60  10  50  10  40  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>053-055-056-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>203.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob