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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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561 FXUS64 KMOB 292102 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Our active summertime pattern continues through Sunday. Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms this afternoon (mainly over interior portions of the forecast area), gradually dissipating this evening. Another round of showers and storms will likely develop over the Gulf waters and along the coast late tonight into early Sunday morning, with coverages then developing over inland areas later in the day. Will be looking at good chance to low end likely Pops (generally around 60 percent) on Sunday, so generally very similar to today. Upper ridging will be in place across our region through Sunday, but slightly retreating back to the west, placing the local forecast area under the eastern periphery of this ridge. This results in a mostly light northeasterly to easterly flow pattern aloft, and a few weak shortwave impulses look to pass overhead as they move within this flow. These upper features, combined with daytime heating and the typical summertime land/sea breeze circulation will be the primary driving force for the showers and storms. Lows tonight will remain quite warm and muggy, with min temps ranging from the low to mid 70s over interior counties to upper 70s and even a few lower 80s closer to the coast, with the 80s being along the immediate coast. Another hot day on Sunday, likely several degrees higher than today for most locations. This combined with dew point temps in the mid to upper 70s for most locations on Sunday will result in heat indices likely peaking in the 108-110 degree range, at least for a period of time, for many locations Sunday afternoon. As such, we have issued a Heat Advisory for our entire forecast area for Sunday, from 10 AM - 7 PM CDT. Had to increase the rip current risk along the Florida panhandle beaches this afternoon to MODERATE and by tonight and especially into Sunday, long period swell originating from Invest 94L as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche, will reach our local beaches. This will likely cause a quick uptick in rip currents, and therefore a HIGH Risk of rip currents is now in effect from late tonight into Sunday evening. DS/12 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Hot and humid. An elongated ridge aloft begins to amplify early next week as it builds east toward our region. A train of shortwaves cruise across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the week and eventually cause the ridge to flatten near the end of the week. A weakening boundary at the surface remains draped across the region as we head into early next week before eventually washing out. A surface high generally remains in control of the weather as we head through the remainder of the week. Ample deep layer moisture remains over the region through the week and into next week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each afternoon through mid- week given the lingering boundary and ample moisture overhead. Coverage becomes more scattered (typical summertime coverage) as we roll into the 4th of July and beyond. Summertime heat persists this week and into next weekend with highs topping out in the 90s each day. Given the moisture over the region, dewpoints will be juicy and thus the heat indices will approach and potentially exceed Heat Advisory criteria each day. Beach Note: MODERATE risk of rip currents persists through Monday night before relaxing to a LOW risk through mid-week. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A mostly light southwesterly flow is expected tonight. For Sunday into Monday, a light diurnal flow pattern is expected with westerly to northwesterly flow developing each night and a southwesterly flow developing each afternoon. By Tuesday, a light southerly to southeasterly flow becomes established for the remainder of the week. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and possibly waterspouts over the next few days will pose the only brief hazards to small craft. DS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 94 76 95 76 92 76 91 / 30 70 30 60 20 60 20 60 Pensacola 79 94 77 93 78 90 79 90 / 20 70 50 70 30 60 30 60 Destin 80 92 79 92 80 90 79 90 / 20 70 50 70 30 60 30 50 Evergreen 73 95 74 95 72 93 73 92 / 30 70 30 50 10 50 10 60 Waynesboro 74 95 73 95 72 95 73 94 / 30 60 20 40 10 50 10 50 Camden 73 94 73 94 71 92 73 92 / 30 60 30 30 10 50 10 50 Crestview 75 96 74 96 75 94 74 94 / 30 70 40 60 20 70 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob