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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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833 FXUS64 KMOB 012349 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 648 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours. A stray shower or brief thunderstorm is possible along the coast through mid-evening, but the likelihood is too low to add any prevailing conditions for the TAF sites. Calm to light and variable winds into Tuesday become light southeasterly to southerly Tuesday afternoon. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through this evening. This will maintain a generally northerly flow pattern aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around this ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will continue to result in light, variable winds. A weak frontal boundary has been sinking toward the coast this afternoon resulting in slight rain chances near the coast. A heat advisory remains in effect today through 7PM for heat index values around 110 for all but the far northwestern counties. The frontal boundary lifts back north on Tuesday returning higher rain chances to inland areas. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 90s in the eastern third of the CWA and mid to upper 90s in the western 2/3 approaching 100 in some locations on the western border. Another heat advisory is likely for western areas on Tuesday. [Schlotz/LIX] SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The overall weather pattern remains rather persistent. Looking aloft, an expansive upper ridge centered over the Tennessee River Valley at the start of the period will gradually shift east through the week, reaching the western Atlantic by Sunday. At the surface, high pressure centered over the area, it is safe to assume that the typical summertime land/seabreeze circulation will likely be the driving force each day. This will help to initiate isolated to scattered showers and storms each morning along our coastal counties and our local marine zones. As the seabreeze marches inland during the afternoon, scattered pulse- type thunderstorms can be expected each day (PoPs generally around 30 to 50 percent). As is the case with this typical summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop. Otherwise, it will be hot thanks to the close proximity of the ridge. Given slight movement of the high pressure through the period, apparent temperatures will hover around the 108 degree threshold and a Heat Advisory will be likely for some portion of the area each day. Lows will not provide much relief, further exacerbating the overall heat risk to the local area... temperatures each night look to drop only into the mid to upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. So, long story short, The heat and humidity will persist through the period. Daily heat indices will generally peak in the 105-110F range. Accordingly, heat advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area through much of the next week. The one exception may be Wednesday with temperatures a couple of degrees lower owing to a slightly stronger southerly, onshore flow on the western side of the retreating surface high. An upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southeast U.S. during the second half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast with weak ridging extend southwestward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will keep organized disturbances, both tropical waves and mid- latitude shortwave troughs, from entering our domain. However, diurnally-driven showers and storms can still be expected each day with convection sea/landbreeze circulations providing a local focus for convection. Undercut the NBM PoPs, especially for Wednesday and Thursday as 60-70 percent coverage in the afternoon seemed a bit high with the absence of any deeper lift underneath the upper ridge. The upper ridge starts to break down late this weekend into early next week as a longwave trough approaches from the central CONUS. While the area will remain well south of any synoptic cold front that is associated with this system, mid-level height falls and weak disturbances rotating around the base of the trough will aid in thunderstorm development late in the period. A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place for Wednesday and the 4th of July holiday, however, as the previous shift mentioned, the rip current risk looks to increase by Friday and especially into the post- holiday weekend. This will likely be a result of long period swell reaching our local beaches in association with Beryl as it enters the Bay of Campeche by the weekend. We will monitor this potential, as well as possible increases in surf and wave run-up issues, over the coming days. [13; Schlotz, Klein/LIX] MARINE... Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. [13; Schlotz/LIX] && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 96 77 90 75 92 76 95 / 10 50 20 50 10 40 10 40 Pensacola 79 90 79 89 77 91 78 92 / 20 50 20 50 10 50 10 40 Destin 81 90 80 89 80 91 79 92 / 30 50 40 40 10 40 10 40 Evergreen 73 95 74 92 73 94 74 96 / 10 40 20 60 10 50 10 50 Waynesboro 71 99 74 93 73 95 74 97 / 0 30 10 50 0 40 10 40 Camden 71 94 74 92 73 94 74 95 / 0 30 10 40 10 40 10 50 Crestview 76 93 74 91 73 94 74 96 / 20 60 30 60 10 50 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>053-055- 056-059-261>266. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>203. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob