650
FXUS64 KMOB 051157
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Patchy fog has developed across portions of our region early this
morning with visibility reduced to MVFR to IFR thresholds.
Visibility should improve for the most part after 13Z. Scattered
showers and storms have also developed along coastal AL early this
morning with associated reduced cigs/vis observed at KJKA. We
expect convective coverage to continue to increase through the
day. Ceilings may be reduced to MVFR thresholds at times with
showers and storms that develop. Storms will also be efficient
rainfall producers, so visibility could easily become restricted
to IFR or lower near the heavier cells that develop. Winds will
also be erratic/gusty at times. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

No significant changes were made to the overall forecast through
Saturday. Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the
northern Gulf Coast region today and tonight before becoming
centered more in the vicinity of southern Georgian and the northern
Florida peninsula on Saturday. Moisture content will remain very
high underneath the ridge axis through the near term period, with
precipitable water values generally ranging between 2.2 and 2.5
inches. A few rain showers are already developing near the coast
early this morning and expect showers and thunderstorms to gradually
increase in coverage across our forecast area this morning and
especially into the afternoon, when we have POPs increasing to
between 60-70% over much of our region. Locally heavy rainfall will
be possible this afternoon into early this evening given the
combination of deep moisture and relatively slow storm motions. Some
locations could easily pick up in excess of 2-3" of rain in a fairly
short period of time, which could result in localized flooding. A
weak surface front will move into our forecast area tonight and may
remain oriented across our CWA through the day Saturday. Scattered
to locally numerous showers and storms may persist into this evening
as the boundary pushes into our region, with some additional
localized heavy rainfall remaining possible. Storms may tend to
diminish in coverage late tonight before showers and storms become
numerous to widespread in coverage along the boundary again during
the day Saturday.

Heat concerns will continue through Saturday despite the wet/stormy
pattern. Dewpoints will remain very high between 75-80 degrees
through Saturday afternoon. High temperatures topping out in the
lower to mid 90s and the high humidity will result in maximum heat
index values between 105-110 degrees over much of the area both
today and Saturday. We will keep the Heat Advisory in effect today
and another may be needed on Saturday. However, the increased rain/
storm chances will help provide some relief from the heat. /21

BEACH HAZARDS...

The rip current risk will start off LOW along area beaches this
morning, but is still expected to ramp up considerably late this
afternoon and especially by early this evening as long period swell
(on the order of 15-17 seconds) associated with distant Hurricane
Beryl arrives along area beaches. The latest guidance continues to
trend just a little later with the arrival of the swell packet as
compared to yesterday and now looks to reach our beaches by late
this afternoon. The rip current risk will ramp up to MODERATE by
later this afternoon and should become HIGH tonight through the
weekend given the combination of the high period swell and large
tidal ranges through the weekend.

The high period swell could result in localized salt water flooding
and wave run up and associated beach erosion along our Gulf facing
beaches late this afternoon through Saturday night (especially
vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft
Pickens). We will keep the Coastal Flood Advisory in effect starting
later this afternoon to highlight the potential for the normally
vulnerable areas.

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Weak upper ridging remains in place across the forecast area to
round out the weekend before strengthening somewhat as we head
into the early to middle part of next week. There remains no
appreciable upper level features evident on forecast guidance, so
we continue to expect your more typical Summer time weather with
showers and storms offshore and/or along the immediate coast in
the morning gradually spreading inland by late morning through
early evening each day. Expect scattered to locally numerous
coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day, particularly mid
to late afternoon. Temperatures will remain very warm with
overnight lows in the lower to middle 70`s inland with upper 70`s
to lower 80`s near the coast. Highs will generally stay in the
lower to middle 90`s each day. Heat index values will likely be
near or above advisory criteria for a good chunk of the period and
heat advisories may be needed on any given day, particularly if
convective coverage trends lower. Additionally, please refer to
the beach hazards section above for details on the potential for
dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding concerns as we move
into the weekend. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A light southerly to southwesterly flow pattern will prevail through
the remainder of the week. A long period swell associated with
Hurricane Beryl will arrive into the marine area later today and
persist into the weekend. Locally higher winds/waves will remain
possible near showers and storms that develop through the weekend.
/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  75  93  78  92  78  92  78 /  70  50  80  30  60  30  60  30
Pensacola   92  78  91  79  92  79  92  80 /  60  40  70  40  70  40  70  30
Destin      90  80  90  81  92  80  91  81 /  50  30  70  40  70  40  60  30
Evergreen   93  73  93  73  93  73  92  73 /  70  60  80  30  70  40  70  20
Waynesboro  92  73  93  73  93  74  93  73 /  70  60  70  20  60  30  60  20
Camden      92  73  94  73  93  74  92  73 /  70  60  70  30  50  30  70  20
Crestview   94  75  93  76  94  76  92  75 /  70  50  80  30  70  40  70  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
     Sunday for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
     Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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