Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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041 FXUS64 KMOB 010458 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours. Some brief and localized MVFR/IFR conditions will occur near the showers during the day on Monday. Light and variable winds overnight will become light northwesterly Monday. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through Monday. This will maintain a generally northerly flow pattern aloft. The combination of weak shortwaves rotating around this ridge, daytime heating and the seabreeze circulation will continue to result in scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms. We have ongoing convection late this afternoon, which will diminish during the early to mid evening hours, and much of the same is expected again on Monday. The storms will be most numerous near the coast this evening and again early Monday morning and then over inland areas through the afternoon hours Monday and into the early evening hours before gradually dissipating by the mid to late the evening hours. After peaking in the mid 90s (and with Heat Index values reaching upwards of 110 degrees) earlier today, temperatures have now dropped somewhat across the region this afternoon with the rain cooled air. Dewpoints are still expected to remain primarily in the mid to upper 70s on Monday, and combined with daytime highs tomorrow reaching well into the 90s before the onset of the more widespread rains, we will again be looking at heat indices to likely peaking in the 108-110 degree range, at least for a period of time. As a result, another Heat Advisory has been issued for most of the area for Monday. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 70s across most of the area, but upper 70s near the coast and maybe even a few low 80s on the barrier islands. A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for the rest of today, to be followed by a moderate risk on Monday and into middle part of the week. DS/12 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Hot and humid. Potentially dangerous beach conditions by next weekend. An amplifying ridge aloft builds into the Deep South on Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten as we move deeper into the week as a train of shortwaves cruise across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Ridging remains loosely overhead through next weekend. Down at the surface, a weakening boundary remains draped across the southern portion of the local area early in the period, but eventually washes out by mid-week. A surface high slides into the western Atlantic and generally keeps a grip on the local area through the remainder of the week. Another front slides into the Deep South over the weekend, but likely remains north of our area. Ample deep layer moisture remains over the region through the week and into next week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each afternoon through mid-week given the lingering boundary and ample moisture overhead. Coverage becomes more scattered (typical summertime hit-and-miss coverage) as we roll into the 4th of July and beyond. Summertime heat persists with highs topping out in the 90s each day. Given the moisture over the region, dewpoints will be juicy, so the heat indices will approach and potentially exceed Heat Advisory criteria each day. Beach and Coastal Notes: Rip current risk remains LOW through the 4th of July. Model guidance shows increasing swell packets (associated with Beryl) reaching our coastline as we head into Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The RCMOS also indicates a quick uptick in the rip current probabilities by Friday afternoon. The rip current risk looks to remain low to potentially moderate through the day on Friday, but may quickly increase to a HIGH by next weekend. Additionally, the swell may lead to increasing surf conditions, beach erosion problems, and wave run-up issues at the beaches (especially problematic at vulnerable spots like the west end of Dauphin Island and Ft Pickens). We still have plenty of time to watch the trends over the coming days, but next weekend has the potential to be very dangerous at the local beaches. Based on next weekend having lots of additional visitors around the holiday, we want to stress this potential. 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. Otherwise, a light diurnal flow pattern is expected through Monday with westerly to northwesterly flow developing each night and a southwesterly flow developing each afternoon. By Tuesday, a light southerly to southeasterly flow becomes established for the remainder of the week. A generally light onshore flow then continues into late week. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 97 77 92 77 90 76 93 / 30 40 10 60 20 70 20 40 Pensacola 77 96 79 90 79 90 78 91 / 40 50 30 60 30 50 20 40 Destin 80 93 80 90 79 90 79 91 / 50 60 30 50 30 50 20 30 Evergreen 74 97 74 92 73 93 73 94 / 30 30 10 70 20 70 10 50 Waynesboro 74 95 71 96 74 92 73 95 / 30 10 0 40 10 60 10 40 Camden 73 94 72 92 72 91 73 94 / 30 10 10 50 20 50 10 40 Crestview 75 96 75 92 74 93 73 95 / 40 60 20 70 20 70 20 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ052-053-055- 056-059-060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266. FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob