513
FNUS72 KMLB 020832
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for WBTWMA - 12C...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
432 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
There is a 50-60% chance for scattered lightning storms across
this area today, with the highest rain potential between 3 PM and
7 PM. Light south winds up to 7 mph will turn southeasterly and
increase to around 10-12 mph after 2-3 PM. Erratic wind gusts are
possible beneath any storm. Minimum RH readings fall to 55-60%,
and dispersion will be fair to good. Plan for hot temperatures in
the low to mid 90s. The forecast will be quite similar for
Wednesday.

See separate email for HYSPLIT.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 8 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....18 increasing to 46.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   11  14  31  35  50  46  49  38
Weather cov.....                SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  20  30  40  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............82  87  89  91  91  92  92  92  89
RH..............85  70  66  62  62  60  59  58  64
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   6   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.6   7   8   9   10  10  12  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.0 4.2 3.8 3.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   7   6   7   8   8   12
Dispersion idx..18  34  40  40  39  41  41  40  46
LVORI...........4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....31 decreasing to 4 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........42     33     21     21     47     32
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     30     10     10     0      0
LAL.............3      3      1      1      1      1
Temp............89     83     81     80     79     78
RH..............66     77     85     91     94     94
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 6   SE 5   S 3    S 2    SE 2
20 ft wind gust.12     10     7      7      6      3
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   1200   400    400    400    400
Transport wind..SE 12  SE 9   SE 9   SE 8   SE 7   SE 7
Dispersion idx..33     5      4      4      3      3
LVORI...........3      4      5      6      6      6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then
                    increasing to 5100 ft AGL late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 3100 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 42.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........30        34        30        42
Weather cov.....                              CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        50
LAL.............1         1         1         3
Temp............77        82        90        90
RH..............97        88        62        60
20 FT wind......SE 2G3    S 2G3     SE 5G8    E 8G12
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1800      4200      4400
Transport wind..SE 6      S 5       S 5       SE 8
Dispersion idx..2         11        27        43
LVORI...........9         5         2         1

$$
Forecaster...Heil
Requested by...Matt Vance
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417123.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Matthew.Vance@MyFWC.com