823
FXUS62 KMLB 022350
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
750 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Boundary collisions will keep SCT shra/tsra across the interior,
ISOLD near the coast into at least mid evening. Will monitor
need/use of "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as applicable.
SERLY winds behind the sea breeze will become light into this
evening and overnight. Conditions mostly dry overnight interior
and cannot rule out ISOLD convection along the coast. Cloud debris
will slowly thin through the night. Light/variable morning winds
across the interior on Wed, then the ECSB moves inland, again,
with SCT shra/tsra (greatest chance inland from coast) for a near
normal summertime diurnal pattern.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures will remain above normal, as warm as the mid 90s in
some locations. The risk of heat stress will increase as we move
from Independence Day and into the weekend.

- Continued daily storm chances, ranging from 30-50% near the coast
to 40-60% over the interior, including Greater Orlando.

Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge will flatten, with
its axis roughly along the I-10 corridor from coast to coast. This
will hinder significant northward movement for Hurricane Beryl as
it churns through the Caribbean Sea. More information on this
powerful storm can be found at hurricanes.gov. By this weekend,
ensemble guidance has trended somewhat deeper with a trough
digging across the Upper Midwest, which may flatten the ridge even
further. However, H5 heights are predicted to exceed the 90th
percentile of climatology (well above normal) through the entire
forecast period locally.

In the lower levels, the ridge axis will lift north of the area
tonight. A steadier onshore flow will exist Wed then a very weak
pressure gradient will produce light and variable winds Thu-Fri
enhanced by the aftn sea breeze near the coast. A light south flow
will resume this weekend as the ridge axis shifts southward once
again across central/south Florida.

Overall, no significant changes were needed from the previous
forecast package. There will be a daily chance of showers and
storms, ranging from 30-50% near the coast to 40-60% over the
interior and Greater Orlando area. Heat-related impacts are still
expected to increase by this weekend.

Thru Tonight...East coast sea breeze will continue to spark
isolated to scattered showers and storms as it pushes inland from
the coastal counties. Late morning Cape sounding shows a deep
layer of southerly flow up thru H5 with precip water values just
under 2 inches. Mid level temps are only around -5C with
unimpressive lapse rates but boundary collisions between the ECSB
and outflows lifting northward from SW FL will produce 50-60%
coverage of storms through early evening over the interior. So
expect convection to linger past sunset once again but probably
not as late as last eve. Lows overnight will reach the mid 70s,
except upper 70s around urban Orlando and the barrier islands.

Wednesday-Friday: (previous)
During this timeframe, including Independence Day, the near-surface
ridge axis will get a kick north of here, allowing light SE PBL
winds. The embedded sea breeze will propagate inland each day, and a
collision with the Gulf breeze should occur west of Orlando. Held
onto likely rain/storm chances (~60%) near and west of Orlando on
Wednesday as H5 T`s and available moisture are somewhat more
favorable for convection, lessening to around 40% along the coast.
For the Fourth of July & Friday, H5 T`s jump closer to
climatological maxima as heights build. With a slight nudge down in
total moisture, we yield no more than 30-50% storm chances, once
again highest well inland.

Temperatures remain hot but fairly steady. Low/mid 90s are forecast,
with mid/upper 70s at night. There are some indications that the
boundary layer may become slightly less humid, conceivably helping
dew points to mix down to the low 70s in the afternoon hours. We
will go with peak heat indices 101-107F, just below Heat Advisory
criteria. Nonetheless, this still exhibits a Moderate to locally
Major HeatRisk; those celebrating the holiday outdoors should take
precautions to beat the heat, such as staying well-hydrated and
seeking breaks in the shade, A/C, or pool.

Next Weekend & Beyond: (previous)
As the upper ridge flattens out, the thermal ridge will also sink
closer to our latitude this weekend, characterized by H85 T`s
approaching +20C. Combined with seasonably high dew points,
oppressive heat and humidity remain the #1 weather concern this
weekend. Statistical guidance continues to suggest fairly
widespread mid 90s over all but the immediate coast (low 90s) from
Saturday through Monday. Overnight low temps will struggle to
drop much below 80F in urban Orlando and remain 4-7F above normal
for all locales. Peak heat index readings will nudge a couple of
degrees warmer, perhaps reaching into our Heat Advisory territory
(>= 108F) especially near and north of Greater Orlando. As the
HeatRisk enters the Major range for more of us, it will be
important to find ways to cool off and stay hydrated each
afternoon.

H5 temperatures will hang out around near or over the 99th
percentile of climatology through the weekend, keeping mid-level
lapse rates poor and likely stifling sustained deep convection.
However, near-normal total moisture and above-normal 0-3 KM mixing
ratios suggest that the daily sea breeze and late-day collision
should be enough to spark widely scattered storms. Areal coverage
should peak 40-50% each day, perhaps as high as 60% over the far
interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The Atlc high pressure ridge axis will lift north of the waters
tonight and produce a more steady onshore flow Wednesday. A very
weak pressure gradient will exist late week then a light south
should resume this weekend. The daily sea breeze circulation
will locally enhance the E to SE winds near the coast each
afternoon 10-12 knots. Seas 2 FT or less near the coast, up to 3
FT offshore for the remainder of the week. A few showers and
storms are forecast, especially during the overnight hours
offshore and nearshore/intracoastal during the morning and early
afternoon. Overall, favorable conditions will persist for both
offshore and inshore boaters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  76  91 /  20  30  20  40
MCO  77  93  76  93 /  40  50  10  50
MLB  78  91  78  91 /  20  30  10  30
VRB  77  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  30
LEE  78  94  78  94 /  50  60  30  50
SFB  77  93  76  94 /  20  50  20  50
ORL  78  93  77  94 /  40  50  20  50
FPR  77  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock