Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
593 FXUS62 KMLB 270500 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 100 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Tranquil conditions persist with predominant southwesterly flow in the boundary layer through the morning hours, even VRB at a few inland sites. A few showers may approach LEE from the Gulf Coast between daybreak and midday (20-30% chance). Otherwise, 40-60% chance for storms after 27/18Z through sunset, focusing the highest coverage near the coastal terminals. TEMPOs were added for coastal sites; running with VC coverage at KMCO due to lesser certainty in thunderstorm coverage. VFR should prevail outside of storms. Sea breeze will try to turn winds SE at MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA after 27/19Z or so. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Weak high pressure remains over the area tonight with surface winds decreasing. Storms have ended with only a stray shower or two moving offshore. Sky conditions will improve overnight as temperatures retreat into the 70s. Winds are forecast to generally stay under 10 mph, becoming southwesterly into Thursday morning. PoPs and temperatures were updated through the evening to reflect the latest trends/observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast is in good shape for the rest of tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Tonight...Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida Straits into tonight. SW flow is expected overnight, with speeds generally around 10-12 KT. Seas will be 2 ft. Isolated showers and a storm or two are possible well offshore, mainly toward daybreak, though there is some uncertainty regarding additional rain chances overnight. Thursday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas around 2 ft gradually increase to 3 ft across the offshore waters Thursday and Friday as an onshore swell increases. Light offshore winds become onshore Saturday before developing a broad southerly component on Sunday. Winds back with the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. A summertime pattern continues with high coverage of showers and storms forecast across the local waters (50-70%) each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 76 93 76 / 60 20 60 30 MCO 93 76 94 77 / 50 10 60 20 MLB 93 76 92 76 / 60 20 50 30 VRB 93 74 93 75 / 60 20 50 30 LEE 92 77 94 77 / 50 10 60 20 SFB 94 76 94 76 / 60 10 60 20 ORL 93 77 94 78 / 60 10 60 20 FPR 92 74 93 75 / 60 20 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Heil