Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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207 FXUS62 KMLB 271418 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1018 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 857 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Isolated to scattered showers streaming across western Florida from the GOMEX this morning, with some of the activity pushing into east central Florida, mainly into Lake/N Volusia. West to southwest flow will persist today, albeit slightly stronger than previous days, as the ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic stays south of the region today. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon and push inland. However, due to the stronger offshore flow, the sea breeze may be pinned closer to the coast, and may not develop at all north of Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and lightning storms will develop through the afternoon ahead of the west coast breeze, with highest coverage (PoP 60 percent) of showers and storms this afternoon and into early evening will be along the I-95 corridor as boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze occur. Lingering drier air aloft will favor a few stronger storms possible this afternoon/evening. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds of 40-45 mph. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will also be possible in any stronger or slower moving storms. Hot and humid conditions once again today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 102-107 degrees. Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments of rain chances through tonight. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 IMPACT: - Afternoon/evening storms, highest chance (60%) for coastal terminals with VIS/CIG restrictions in their vicinity. Light southwest winds continue this morning. A few showers will try to reach LEE through 16Z from the west. For 27/18Z-23Z, 40-50% chance for storms at MCO/Greater Orlando terminals, increasing to 60% along the coastal terminals. Persisted with previous TAF package trends, only tweaking timing based on latest guidance. Short-fused TEMPOs may be required for MCO if convection becomes more widespread over the metro area. Sea breeze remains pinned at the coast through the afternoon. VFR outside of storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today-Tonight...Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area today, which will lead to a continued W/SW flow through this morning around 10 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE this afternoon and remain around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze forms, but remains pinned toward the coast. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Scattered offshore moving storms are forecast, especially from mid afternoon through early evening. Some may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes as they move off the coast into the nearshore waters. Friday-Monday...Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5- 10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 96 76 93 76 / 60 20 60 30 MCO 94 76 94 77 / 50 10 60 20 MLB 94 76 92 76 / 60 30 50 30 VRB 94 74 93 75 / 60 30 50 30 LEE 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 60 20 SFB 95 76 94 76 / 60 10 60 20 ORL 94 77 94 78 / 60 10 60 20 FPR 94 74 93 75 / 60 30 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Heil