Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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055 FXUS62 KMLB 291721 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 121 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions are forecast outside of convection. Slightly slower start to showers and storms today, with VCTS activity picking up after 18-19Z. TEMPOs across the interior terminals from 19-22Z for lowered CIGs down to FL035 and MVFR VIS due to TSRA. Would not be surprised if CIGs drop to MVFR, but will amend as needed. Lower confidence in coverage along the coast, so took out TEMPOs at TIX and MLB with this package, and continued to leave them out at the Treasure Coast terminals and DAB. Will continue to monitor this and amend as necessary. Storm activity is forecast to diminish around 23Z, with activity transitioning mainly to showers. Showers are then expected to diminish overnight after 03Z, with winds becoming light and calm across all terminals. Winds are forecast to pick back up out of the ENE at 5 to 10 knots after 15Z tomorrow, with another afternoon of showers and storms forecast after 18Z. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Early morning (10Z) Cape sounding shows precip water of 2.18" so quite a moist profile especially in the mid and upper levels. There is considerable mid and upper cloudiness assocd with this moisture and is supported by some upper vorticity that will push S/SW across the area during the day. The sounding also shows some relatively drier air just above the sfc which should is initially limiting the development of the diurnal cu field. But this drier air will mix out with time and a healthy cu field will develop during the afternoon. Weak pressure gradient producing light and variable winds and this will allow the east coast sea breeze to develop by early afternoon and push inland. Convective initiation is expected just inland from the coast along the sea breeze with the focus on the interior late in the day assocd with boundary collisions. The upper support should produce a high coverage of rain/storms over the interior with a few strong storms. Only change to the forecast for today was to lower rain chances through the morning over the Atlc and coastal areas. && .MARINE... Issued at 456 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions expected with light and somewhat variable winds this morning, becoming onshore this afternoon around 5-10 knots as east coast sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then veer southerly into tonight and remain relatively light. Seas 1-2 feet. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop into the afternoon, mainly inland, but still can`t rule out some of this activity shifting back toward the coast and offshore. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop over the waters, especially across the gulf stream waters. Sunday-Wednesday...Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain across the area through late weekend into early next week, maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable winds expected again into Sunday morning, but then will become more southerly into early this week. Winds will become onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds 5-10 knots on Sunday and increasing to around 10 knots Monday through Wednesday. Seas around 2 feet, may increase to 2-3 feet by mid week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible over the coastal waters through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 91 75 92 / 30 50 20 40 MCO 75 91 74 92 / 50 70 20 60 MLB 75 89 75 90 / 40 50 20 40 VRB 75 89 74 90 / 50 60 20 40 LEE 76 92 76 92 / 50 70 30 60 SFB 75 92 75 92 / 40 60 20 50 ORL 76 91 76 92 / 50 60 20 60 FPR 74 88 74 90 / 50 60 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Tollefsen