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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
925 FXUS63 KMKX 012012 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - River flooding and high water levels continue this week. Additional rises will be possible with any heavier rainfall (late tonight through Tuesday night). - Thunderstorm chances late tonight through Tuesday night. Primary concern is the rainfall. - Warmer / quiet weather expected Wednesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night: Dry and pleasant weather continues until late tonight (after midnight). A surface pressure trough extending south from low pressure in Manitoba (connecting to a satellite low in KS) works with the departing high pressure system to generate strong 850-700mb WAA late tonight, leading to a gradual increase in rain shower coverage early Tuesday morning, with a chance for a few weak elevated thunderstorms amongst the showers (though HREF Mean MUCAPE is < 500 joules). One or two lulls in shower / weak thunderstorm activity may occur mid Tuesday. In the late afternoon / evening, the LLJ strengthens overhead (40-45 kts, PWAT climbs to around 2.0 inches), potentially fueling showers and weak thunderstorms capable of higher rainfall rates. Shower and thunderstorm activity gradually decrease late Tuesday night as a cold front crosses the region, moving clear of the CWA by around 7 AM CDT Wednesday. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Wednesday through Monday: The passage of a weak high pressure system will lead to a lull in active weather on Wednesday. West winds 10 to 20 mph behind the cold front will only briefly provide CAA. The subsidence of the approaching high will clear the skies out gradually, sending Wednesday`s daytime high temps into the mid 80s. West winds abate the lake breeze and allow areas east of the Kettle Moraine to soar into the upper 80s. The active weather pattern returns Thursday into Friday as low pressure develops in the northern Plains and tracks eastward. A semi persistent trough axis over the northern plains may allow additional low pressure systems to follow a similar track, leading to occasional shower / storm chances through the end of the forecast period. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions continue and southeast winds develop into tonight as the high pressure system departs eastward. Showers will hold off until after midnight tonight. Cloud ceilings are currently expected to lower from around 10 kft towards 4kft late tonight through Tuesday AM, generally preserving VFR cigs until Tuesday afternoon. Rain shower coverage in the region is expected to gradually increase throughout said period, and some thunderstorms (likely weak) may accompany the showers. Southeast winds accelerate and veer south gradually. Though a lull in shower / storm coverage mid Tuesday is possible, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in lower cloud cigs. Shower and storm chances continue until around 7 AM CDT Wednesday, when the front moves clear of the area. West winds and drier weather expected behind the front. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 With high pressure around 30.3 inches lingering over Lake Michigan, winds will be light and variable for the rest of today, predominantly westerly over the northern edge and easterly over the southern edge. High pressure will continue moving east, exiting the western Great Lakes Region tonight. Winds will become southeasterly and increase tonight as low pressure around 29.4 inches moves northeast from Saskatchewan toward James Bay. Winds will remain south to southeasterly until Tuesday night when a cold front crosses the lake. Rain and thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage. Southwest to west winds are expected behind the front. Weak high pressure returns to the region Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a return of light and variable winds. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060...6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday. Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee