Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
018 FXUS63 KMKX 050755 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early morning showers and thunderstorms, with additional storm chances this afternoon. - Lower rain chance Saturday (15-20%), before higher rain chances (40-60%) return for Sunday. - Continued muggy with temperatures around average into next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Today through Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across the area early this morning, ahead of a slow moving shortwave trough and associated weak cold front. Much of this activity will move east of the area shortly after sunrise, before additional showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon. No severe weather is expected this afternoon, but locally heavy rain will remain a threat, with PWATs approaching 1.5 inches and slow storm motions. Thunderstorm coverage should decrease fairly quickly this evening, owning to both a loss of daytime heating and weak subsidence and dry air advection as the mid level wave moves east. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Another, weaker shortwave will move into the region for Saturday. Weak lift and no organized surface features will limit rain chances. Most locations will remain dry, with just a 15-20 percent chance for showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Saturday night through Thursday: The overall pattern that we`ve been in for a few days, with weak but prolific shortwave energy within broad troughing over the central Plains and Great Lakes, will continue Sunday into at least mid week. Daily precip chances will range from about 40-60 percent, generally maximized during the afternoon hours, with slow storm motions and a moist airmass contributing to a localized heavy rain threat. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s to near 80, with lows in the 60s. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push across the region early this morning, with associated pockets of MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibility. Behind this activity, IFR and MVFR ceilings, along with areas of fog, are expected. Conditions should improve for a time later this morning, before additional shower and thunderstorm activity develops for the afternoon hours. Precipitation coverage will decrease this evening, with lower ceilings and pockets of fog becoming possible once again. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 South to southeast winds are expected over the southern half of Lake Michigan today, with east to northeast winds over the north half as low pressure moves across central WI and into Lower Michigan by this afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly tonight into Saturday morning as the low moves across Lake Huron and southern Ontario. Winds return to a southerly direction Sunday into the early to middle portion of the week. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee