176
FXUS62 KMHX 020227
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1027 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north the rest
of today and remain over the area through Wednesday. The high
then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with
oppressive heat and humidity returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM Monday...No major changes to the forecast. Showers
all well offshore at this point as the front moves further away
to our SE.


Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Mon...Cool high pressure will
continue to build in from the north tonight with skies remaining
mostly clear. Though there will be a little bit of wind,
especially along the coast, expect strong cooling tonight which
will allow for temps to dip down into the upper 50s to lower 60s
inland and upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...A much deserved seasonable, sunny, and low
humidity day expected tomorrow with high pressure continuing to
ridge into the region from the north. High temps will be several
degrees below normal with readings reaching the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler than average temps are forecast on Wed

- Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend

Wed...Upper troughing will be located offshore at the start of
the period and continue to push E`wards further into the
Atlantic while upper ridging continues to build over the
Southeast Wed. At the surface, high pressure gradually slides
E`wards into the Atlantic on Wed turning winds to the E and then
SE by Wed afternoon as fair weather continues across the area.
Highs get into the 80s with lows in the the 60s to low 70s.
With dewpoints forecast to be in the 60s, it will feel much
more comfortable outside through midweek.

Thurs through the weekend... Our most impactful weather likely
occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive
heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again.
Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any
upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface,
high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore
through the end of the week allowing return flow and moisture
return to resume across ENC. As mentioned above, temps will
steadily warm into the weekend allowing oppressive heat and
humidity to return to ENC starting on Fri and persisting into
the end of the weekend. Otherwise climatological avg precip
chances will resume starting this weekend as well with at least
a chance for some shower and tstm development each afternoon
along the seabreeze.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Tue/...
As of 730 PM Mon...VFR conditions persist through the short
term. High pressure will build south over eastern NC tonight
and Tuesday resulting in VFR conditions and light winds
through Tuesday. Overnight there will be enough low level
mixing to preclude fog while the low levels are forecast to be
too dry to support low stratus cloud formation despite easterly
flow. Diurnal Cu tomorrow should remain VFR, at 5-6kft and be
scattered in nature.

LONG TERM /Tue night through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Mon... Primarily VFR conditions forecast through the
period with light winds as high pressure settles in across the
Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...Dropped the SCA for coastal waters from
Cape Hatteras to Duck with seas falling to 4-5 feet and gusts
generally below 20 kts. Also dropped SCA for Pamlico Sound with
frequent gusts below 25 kts.

As of 3 PM Mon...SCAs will continue through most of tonight as
strong NE persists in the wake of a cold front. Winds are
currently N/NE at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, and are
expected to continue at this strength for the first half of
tonight. Thereafter, winds will begin to weaken and become
mostly NE 10-20 kts by tomorrow morning.

Seas have climbed quickly in response to the strong NE winds and
remain 4-6 ft (highest north of Cape Hatteras). Seas will remain
nearly steady through around midnight, and then will gradually
diminish overnight, becoming 3-5 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 315 PM Mon...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. High pressure ridging continues to
gradually push E`wards across the area Tuesday night, relaxing
the gradient with winds easing to 5-15 kts while becoming more
E`rly by Wed morning. Winds continue to remain light and veer to
the SE and eventually the S on Thurs as ridging becomes
centered to the E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and
Thurs down to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ
SHORT TERM...SGK/RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RCF/RJ