086
FXUS62 KMHX 041356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain
centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat
and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 955 AM Thurs... No significant changes to the forecast
today as we are steadily warming up this morning with temps now
in the upper 70s to low 80s while high cirrus continues to
stream in from the north.

Prev Disc...THIS MORNING: High pressure continues slowly
drifting offshore, dominating the weather conditions through the
morning. Winds are generally calm inland and some high cloud
cover streaming in from the north/northeast. The cloud cover has
inhibited any impactful fog formation this morning. However,
with the winds being calm patchy, shallow non-impactful fog is
possible through 8am as Tds trend higher with the return flow
from the high. Lows this morning are observed to be in the in
the mid- upper 60s inland, low 70s for beaches.

TODAY: Warm day on tap with highs in the low-mid 90s inland,
80s for beaches. Dry forecast and light south winds with the
high pressure centered to our east. This southerly flow will
also usher in more moisture, with Heat Indices near 100 degrees
inland. Diurnal cumulus field will develop once again in the
late morning to early afternoon and overspread the entire CWA
until the seabreeze can develop and push the cloud field further
inland. An area of weak isentropic lift along a pre frontal
trough will be located in central NC, approaching us towards the
end of the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...Prefrontal trough moves through the
region overnight. 6Z CAMs show the line of showers breaking up
at our doorstep, with wide uncertainty on if they make it into
our CWA. Instability will be meager at best when the greatest
forcing moves through, and despite PWATs over 2", it is likely
any showers and thunderstorms moving in from our west dissipate
before reaching the western portions of the CWA. Slightly
increased PoPs for northern portions of the CWA where the
greatest forcing resides, but PoPs still remain at or below 20%.
Unfortunately this trough will not do much to alleviate the
drought conditions occuring in the coastal plain. Lows are a bit
higher, in the low-mid 70s inland and mid 70s for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven,
  return this weekend into next week

Our most impactful weather likely occurs Friday into the
weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the
Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead,
while at the surface, high pressure will remain anchored
offshore allowing SSW flow and deeper moisture to return to the
area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing
for oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This will likely lead to heat index values peaking at 105-110
deg for many areas, esp Fri and Sat.

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next
week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and
waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep
mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this
weekend into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit
overall svr threat.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 710 AM Thursday...

 - VFR likely for most areas over the next 24 hrs (>80% chance)

 - Low chance (10-20%) of MVFR ceilings Thursday night into
   early Friday morning along a prefrontal trough

High pressure has shifted offshore, with a light southeasterly
flow allowing some shallow moisture advection to occur off the
Atlantic. Despite this moisture advection, upper level cloud
cover has prevented BR formation this morning. Light south-
southeasterly flow will continue through the day Thursday, with
a bump up in winds with the advancing seabreeze in the
afternoon. Once again, the risk of SHRA or TSRA looks low along
the seabreeze (<10% chance). Of note, however, TSRA approaching
from the west along a pre- frontal trough may make a run at the
coastal plain of Eastern NC (ISO, PGV). Current expectation is
for the showers and Tstorms to mostly dissipate before reaching
TAF terminals, but added VCSH to PGV where there is a 20% chance
of the showers and/or thunderstorms persisting as they move
eastward. Whether showers dissipate or not, there will be an
increase in cloud cover Thursday night along the trough,
although current expectation is for ceilings to be VFR. There is
a 10-20% chance of MVFR ceilings developing, higher if showers
make it across the border into our CWA. For this reason, added a
FEW030 mention to the TAFs. Still too much uncertainty to add in
predominant sub-VFR categories.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend and
early next week, which could bring periods of sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...Pleasant boating conditions continue
over area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast,
extends southward over the Carolinas. Ongoing 5 to 15 kt
S/SE`rly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas will continue to persist
over our waters through Thursday. Thursday night winds veer to
become SW`rly, but remain 5-15kts.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Typical summertime pattern expected through
the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Fri into Sat,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is
potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts late Fri afternoon
and Fri night, which could bring SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15
kt Sun and Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with
potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night into Sat.
May continue to see longer period swells from very distant
Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on
wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ