062
FXUS62 KMHX 021109
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
709 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through
tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this
weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 700 AM Tue...High pressure continues to expand over the
area while cold front remains stalled over southeastern Georgia.
Temperatures cooled off quite efficiently as expected, with
Kenansville being the cool spot at 55.

The high will remain in control through the day, gradually
shifting eastward as mid- level ridge builds overhead.
Temperatures will rebound with plenty of insolation, and highs
in the mid to upper 80s are likely inland with low 80s along the
coast. Onshore northeasterly flow keeps the Outer Banks muggy,
but across the Crystal Coast Tds will linger in the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tue...Little change in surface and upper air
patterns overnight, although hi-res guidance does depict a very
subtle coastal trough developing overnight. A minority of
guidance suggests a few very spotty showers are possible along
this boundary, but kept PoPs below mentionable for now. Lows
will be a couple degrees warmer than this morning, but still in
the low 60s inland to upper 60s to around 70 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tue...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler than average temps are forecast on Wed

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend

Wed...Upper troughing offshore will continue to push eastward
while upper ridge continues to build over the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure gradually slides E`wards into the
Atlantic as weak coastal trough develops. Weak trough and
easterly flow may lead to isolated light showers, mainly across
the southern forecast area, but will keep mostly dry forecast
for now. Below normal temps will continue, with highs in the 80s
and dewpoints more comfortably in the 60s.

Thu through Mon...Our most impactful weather likely occurs at
the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and
humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging
will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level
troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure
ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end
of the week allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the
area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing
for oppressive heat and humidity to return, Fri into the
weekend. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland,
low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back
up into the 70s. This could to heat index values peaking at
105-110 deg. A cold front will approach the area this weekend
and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of
the area. This boundary will likely do little, except to
possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly
dry forecast through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven
seabreeze pops this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Wed/...
As of 705 AM Tue...VFR conditions remain in place this morning
with a substantial stratus deck just offshore behind a stalled
frontal boundary readily apparent on satellite imagery. High
pressure continues to build in from the north and will remain
in control with few to sct cu coverage in the afternoon.
Easterly winds gusting to 15 kt at times, with more frequent
gusts along the Outer Banks. Slightly greater fog/stratus
threat early tomorrow morning with increasing low level
moisture thanks to the easterly flow, with highest focus west of
Highway 17.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue... Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 350 AM Tue...Marine conditions continue to slowly improve
this morning as high pressure further expands behind yesterday`s
cold front, now draped across southeastern Georgia. Seas of 3-5
feet, especially south of Cape Hatteras, are holding in
persistent northeasterly winds of around 15-20 kt with a few
isolated gusts to 25 kt. Conditions still warrant SCA headlines
south of Cape Hatteras, but model trends suggest these will be
able to drop around sunrise.

Further improvement expected today as northeasterly winds ease
to 10-15 kt through tonight, becoming easterly by early Wed
morning. Seas will slowly subside to 3-4 feet through the
period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. High pressure ridging continues to
gradually push E`wards across the area Tuesday night, relaxing
the gradient with winds easing to 5-15 kts while becoming more
E`rly by Wed morning. Winds continue to remain light and veer to
the SE and eventually the S on Thurs as ridging becomes
centered to the E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and
Thurs down to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS